First model achieves 95%+ accuracy on VPCT or benchmark deprecated/replaced by its author:
1
175Ṁ2602027
60%
Q4 2025
10%
Q1 2026
10%
Q2 2026
5%
Q3 2026
5%
Q4 2026
5%
Q1 2027
5%
After Q1 2027
The Visual Physics Comprehension Test (VPCT) evaluates vision models' ability to predict visually simple ball-falling scenarios. Currently, humans score 100% while the top model GPT-5 (high) only scores 66%.
This market resolves to the quarter in which the first AI model achieves at least 95% accuracy on the VPCT benchmark, as reported on the official VPCT leaderboard (https://cbrower.dev/vpct) or the author decides to replace/deprecate the benchmark.
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