@MikeH So, do these remaining options resolve NO now?

a) They've not publicly (afaik) called for him to drop out.

b) If they did so privately, it wasn't confirmed in advance of his actually dropping out. If they confirmed this now, there is no political cost to Biden, so it goes against the spirit of the question...

Resolving YES for Adam Schiff based on his comments today.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/17/us/politics/adam-schiff-biden-drop-out-election.html

nytimes.com

@AndrewJewell https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/15/republicans-trump-unity-column-00168219

This article suggests she's already been doing some spearheading of the campaign. Probably not an explicit enough call to resolve the market but points to the possibility that she could make the list, at least on the "reports of private discussions" front.

Related:

https://manifold.markets/EricZhu/how-many-influential-democrats-will#7if52a7yun5

my opinion: this is almost a prerequisite for him dropping out. Pressure from the house speaker regarding vulnerable house democrats in purple districts has gotta be the key piece of pressure on Biden to drop out, or else it won't happen.

For the resolution of this question, what happens if Biden drops out relatively soon? Would a statement from one of these people saying that Biden made the right decision to drop count as "calling for him to drop out" if he drops out before many more people get the chance to call for him to drop out?

This only covers calls for him to leave the race before he leaves the race. Subsequent comments simply saying they think it was a good idea would not qualify. However, if they were to say "I told him to withdraw and he did" or this was to be subsequently reported then this would resolve YES.

@MikeH ...Hakeem?

I’ve taken your point on board