Will Congressman Tom McClintock resign before July 1?
295
Jul 1
17%
chance

Congressman Tom McClintock (CA-05) along with Reps. Ken Buck (CO-4) and Mike Gallagher (WI-8) were the three GOP votes against impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. (A fourth GOP vote was purely for procedural issues.)

Buck and Gallagher recently announced their resignations, further narrowing a slender Republican majority in the House of Representatives to one seat following George Santos' expulsion and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's resignation.

McClintock's district is typically rated "Solid" or "Safe" Republican by the pundits, but California Governor Gavin Newsome (D) may choose not to call a special election:

10701.  (a) When a vacancy occurs in a congressional office after the close of the nomination period in the final year of the term of office, the Governor may decline to issue an election proclamation at his discretion.

If Tom McClintock resigns his Congressional seat before midnight ET on June 30, 2024, this market resolves YES.  If he announces his intent to resign, or a resignation after June 30, 2024, then the market still resolves YES.  If he does not resign or announce his resignation, the market will resolve NO.  If he dies or is removed from Congress for any reason, then the market will resolve NO.  Only resignation is relevant and the reason for his resignation does not matter.

This market will not resolve as a percentage under any circumstances. The market creator will not trade in this market.

Background:

Tom McClintock - Wikipedia

CA-5 Ballotpedia

Republicans’ House majority is their smallest in decades, and shrinking

House GOP will face one-vote majority as another Republican plans exit

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Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) stood up at the meeting and called for consequences for Republicans who break away on so-called rule votes.

McClintock confirmed to Axios he called for "severe sanction" against such lawmakers — including possibly stripping them of their "committee assignments or their membership in the Republican Conference," he said.

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/10/house-republicans-chaos-fisa-freedom-caucus