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MANIFOLD
Will North Korea conduct a major military provocation
2
Ṁ100Ṁ110
Jun 9
18%
chance
  • Will a significant US political figure aligned with transnational capital (e.g., finance sector) challenge Trump's coalition by end of 2026?" — Jiang frames the internal battle as nationalism/religion/tech vs. transnational capital (Wall Street/City of London) .

  • "Will Mark Carney's government in Canada take a sharply different foreign policy stance from the US by end of 2026?" — Jiang identifies Carney as the champion of transnational capital .

Market context
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