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MANIFOLD
Lyft will collapse by the end of December 31, 2027
3
Ṁ100Ṁ33
2027
40%
chance

Subjective (obviously).

Resolves YES if ANY of the following (OR SIMILAR) happens before

11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027.

1. STOCK PRICE: LYFT (Nasdaq) trades at $10.00 per share or below. Prices are adjusted for any stock splits or reverse splits.

2. SALE OR SALE PROCESS: Any one of:

a. Lyft announces a definitive agreement to be acquired, merged into

another company, or taken private.

b. Lyft publicly confirms it is exploring "strategic alternatives"

including a sale.

c. Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, or FT reports, citing sources, that Lyft has

hired advisers to explore a sale or is in talks to be acquired.

Lyft acquiring other companies does not count. Activist stake purchases

alone do not count.

3. MAJOR GEOGRAPHIC EXIT: Lyft stops offering ride-hailing to the general

public in any one of the following:

a. An entire U.S. state among the 10 most populous (CA, TX, FL, NY, PA,

IL, OH, GA, NC, MI), or

b. Three or more of the 25 largest U.S. metro areas (by Census MSA

population), whether at once or one at a time during the market

window, or

c. All of Canada, or

d. All of its European operations.

Temporary suspensions (strikes, storms, court orders later reversed) do

not count. Bike and scooter share, Shared Rides, and other single product

tiers do not count.

4. INSOLVENCY: Lyft files for Chapter 11 or Chapter 7 bankruptcy, or is

delisted from Nasdaq.

5. CEO: Lyft gets a new CEO. Current CEO is David Risher.

Cases similar to the above will also resolve YES.

Ambiguous cases will be resolved by my judgment with reasoning

posted in the comments. I will not trade in this market.

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