My toddler chooses which option will win
➕
Plus
38
Ṁ37k
resolved Feb 13
100%89%
Trains are awesome 🚂🚂🚂
0.0%
Thomas the blue tank engine
0.0%
among us
0.0%
Canada
0.0%
The United States
0.0%
Taylor Swift
0.0%
Daddy
0.0%
Mommy
0.0%
A surprise
0.0%
A doggy
0.0%
People's Republic of China
8%
Baby shark (doo doo doo doo doo doo)
0.0%
Yes
0.0%
hello
0.0%
Obamna
0.0%
Spider-Man
0.0%
Bluey
0.0%
"Congratulations, child. You get a PUPPY!"
0.0%
Chocolate
0.0%
Dinosaur 🦖

I have a 3-year old son. At market close I will read out the options in reverse order (highest percentage option gets to be spoken last) and ask him to pick one. In the highly likely event that he picks multiple options or can't decide between them, I will treat that as a "shortlist" and repeat the process. I will repeat until a final decision is made. If no decision can be made, I will resolve to prob split between all finalists.

FINE PRINT:

  • I reserve the right to disqualify any options I don't want to read out: if you promise him candy in exchange for choosing your answer, I'm not going to read it out because I don't want to be on the hook for the ensuing temper tantrum when there isn't any candy.

  • My rule about trading in my own markets when there's some discretion in the resolution process is that I allow myself to trade, but commit to owning zero shares at resolution time.

  • Some people are adding emojis. I will in fact show him the answers as I'm reading them to him, so that's a viable strategy

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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I spontaneously tacked this on to the marshmallow test livestream. If anyone lost mana due to the lack of communication (E.g. left limit orders up due to thinking resolution was far off) I have some live trading winnings I can pay back your losses with.

lolwut

@Bayesian that still doesn't explain why though?

@Pykess When there's a bunch of trading going right at the same time the market is resolved, it sometimes glitches. I suspected that had happened here so with Michael's permission I unresolved and re-resolved since that has fixed these issues in the past.

bought Ṁ50 NO

what's going on..

bought Ṁ10 YES

guys he's gonna say all of them there's no reason to only bet up the ones he says when he says them

bought Ṁ1 YES

Y'all have underestimated the power of theatre

@TheAllMemeingEye I expect @MichaelWheatley to read all of these in a monotone voice exactly as written. "boom head explode emoji open parenthesis in a really..."

@NivlacM I'm going to split the difference: execute stage directions but do so in as minimal a way as possible, so that this doesn't turn into a tell dad what to do contest

bought Ṁ10 YES

No way Farty McFartface should be at only 1 - 2%. Fart jokes are one of the key pillars of kid humor.

ooh inspired for another option actually

bought Ṁ5 YES
bought Ṁ5 YES

the divine order

Is this some sort of jailbreak for toddlers to get them to bypass constraints? Or just normal token overloading?

@Pykess this is a smart answer actually. I would have submitted something similar.

@MichaelWheatley I've never interacted with a toddler for long enough to know if you're being serious

@Pykess a really long answer is going to a) stand out and b) be interesting

Oops, there’s fine print 😅

@LuisCostigan Great answer though

This is a great idea, I really like this market. You could derive some interesting variations from it. For example: "Which character is the strongest, according to my toddler?". You print out pictures of the suggested characters and let the toddler decide who would win a fight, with tournament progression.

The credit goes to @Joshua. We were talking about some other market idea and he suggested I create this one in the vein of the "ChatGPT Chooses" markets other people have made.

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