How much value, in USD, does M$100 in profits have?
I've noticed that although M$100 is theoretically worth less than a dollar, people are willing to put much more energy into winning it than that number would suggest. Maybe because they're trading for fun instead of finances, or maybe they want to win mana because that's how Manifold keeps score.
To resolve this, I will either devise an informal test to run, wait for one of you to do it for me, or resolve to the market probability at a random date and time in the week before the close date. Given that discretion, I will not be trading in this market.
See also:
Sep 22, 1:18pm: I've extended the close date by a week because I have my hands full working on a bot for the trading bot contest, so I want some extra time to figure out how to run an informal test on this. If this has been disruptive for anyone please let me know.
Sep 22, 3:39pm: For clarity, this question includes the additional M$100 assumed to be in your account, not just the raw leaderboard numbers themselves.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ10 | |
| 2 | Ṁ4 | |
| 3 | Ṁ3 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
"Maybe because they're trading for fun instead of finances"
I mean, no maybe about it. Literally no person on earth is trading on Manifold for their personal finances, because mana can't be redeemed for money. This is a classic personal utility vs economic value thing. 100 mana in profits is worth less than a dollar (trivially so) but is worth people's time because people who bet on Manifold enjoy the experience.
@dreev this would imply that the correct value for this market is 0.0, given this is asking about profits and not mana.
@Adam I'm confused about the difference. Mana is mana is money, from my perspective. Doesn't matter how I get it.
@dreev If you get it from trading, you also get higher on the leaderboard, other people trust your predictions more, etc. Some people value these things.
@MichaelWheatley @Yev Super fair. Personally I'm gunning for the proposed altruism leaderboard, for those who've spent the most on subsidizing markets or bounties or other ways of spending mana for the benefit of the community.
(I'm still confused by @Adam's claim about some way someone could value mana profit less. You're talking about ways someone might value it more, and I agree with that.)
@dreev I assume this question is asking about how much you value leaderboard profit, not the mana you profited?
@Adam My intention was that it was both, since 100 in profits entails an extra 100 in your account as well.
@MichaelWheatley not necessarily; people have found a variety of ways (some of which have been patched) to gain account-profits without earning M$.