Will Russia issue an ultimatum this year for a ceasefire agreement, using the threat of tactical nuclear weapons?
15
997
Dec 31
18%
chance

The bet resolves as "yes" if Putin or a high-ranking Russian official issues an official statement explicitly outlining the ultimatum's terms and the threat of tactical nuclear weapons until EOY 2024.

Possible resolution criterias:

  1. Official Statements: Confirmation of official statements from the Kremlin or Russian government representatives regarding the ultimatum and its conditions.

  2. Diplomatic Activity: Evidence of diplomatic negotiations between Russia and Ukraine aimed at reaching an agreement, including any discussions on the ultimatum.

  3. Military Actions: Significant military movements or exercises by Russia near Eastern Ukraine indicating a heightened state of tension or preparation for an ultimatum.

  4. International Response: Reactions from other governments and international organizations regarding the credibility and seriousness of the ultimatum.

  5. Expert Assessments: Insights from geopolitical analysts and experts on Russian politics regarding the likelihood and potential consequences of such an ultimatum.

Bet ambiguous (N/A) if: unclear statements, vague diplomacy, mixed reactions, conflicting expert opinions.

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define "ceasefire" – for this to happen, Russia simply needs to leave Ukraine. Weird question.

@Lorelai "if Ukraine doesn't stop fighting us, we'll nuke Kyiv". It's not a weird question at all.

Notice this is unrelated to the fact that Russia *should* be kicked out of Ukraine. Slava Ukraini etc etc etc.

A nuke deployed in Ukraine would mean Ukraine will be wiped clean of Russians by NATO.

@Bart5f6d The bet is on the possibility of ultimatum, not actual use of nukes.

sold Ṁ10 YES

@MichaelVoss they have not yet done a test. Ultimatum could have weight if the test was successful.

@KongoLandwalker They have tested Zircon missiles designed to deliver tactical nuclear warheads today in Kyiv https://defence-blog.com/russia-uses-new-zircon-hypersonic-missiles-to-strike-targets-in-ukrainian-capital/?amp

@MichaelVoss They cost 210 million USD each.

opened a Ṁ5 YES at 10% order

@MichaelVoss delivery system is only a step. The nuclear warhead tech itself was not tested for decades.

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