The bet resolves as "yes" if Putin or a high-ranking Russian official issues an official statement explicitly outlining the ultimatum's terms and the threat of tactical nuclear weapons until EOY 2024.
Possible resolution criterias:
Official Statements: Confirmation of official statements from the Kremlin or Russian government representatives regarding the ultimatum and its conditions.
Diplomatic Activity: Evidence of diplomatic negotiations between Russia and Ukraine aimed at reaching an agreement, including any discussions on the ultimatum.
Military Actions: Significant military movements or exercises by Russia near Eastern Ukraine indicating a heightened state of tension or preparation for an ultimatum.
International Response: Reactions from other governments and international organizations regarding the credibility and seriousness of the ultimatum.
Expert Assessments: Insights from geopolitical analysts and experts on Russian politics regarding the likelihood and potential consequences of such an ultimatum.
Bet ambiguous (N/A) if: unclear statements, vague diplomacy, mixed reactions, conflicting expert opinions.
Related questions
@Lorelai "if Ukraine doesn't stop fighting us, we'll nuke Kyiv". It's not a weird question at all.
Notice this is unrelated to the fact that Russia *should* be kicked out of Ukraine. Slava Ukraini etc etc etc.
@MichaelVoss they have not yet done a test. Ultimatum could have weight if the test was successful.
@KongoLandwalker They have tested Zircon missiles designed to deliver tactical nuclear warheads today in Kyiv https://defence-blog.com/russia-uses-new-zircon-hypersonic-missiles-to-strike-targets-in-ukrainian-capital/?amp
@MichaelVoss delivery system is only a step. The nuclear warhead tech itself was not tested for decades.