The bet resolves as "yes" if Putin or a high-ranking Russian official issues an official statement explicitly outlining the ultimatum's terms and the threat of tactical nuclear weapons until EOY 2024.

Possible resolution criterias:

1. Official Statements: Confirmation of official statements from the Kremlin or Russian government representatives regarding the ultimatum and its conditions.

2. Diplomatic Activity: Evidence of diplomatic negotiations between Russia and Ukraine aimed at reaching an agreement, including any discussions on the ultimatum.

3. Military Actions: Significant military movements or exercises by Russia near Eastern Ukraine indicating a heightened state of tension or preparation for an ultimatum.

4. International Response: Reactions from other governments and international organizations regarding the credibility and seriousness of the ultimatum.

5. Expert Assessments: Insights from geopolitical analysts and experts on Russian politics regarding the likelihood and potential consequences of such an ultimatum.

Bet ambiguous (N/A) if: unclear statements, vague diplomacy, mixed reactions, conflicting expert opinions.