Will a mutiny occur in 2024 within the Russian or Ukrainian military?
Basic
6
Ṁ160Dec 31
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as yes, specifically, if any unit of Russian OR Ukrainian military defects from central command control.
• Yes: In a 2024 scenario, a Russian or Ukrainian military unit defects after officers openly criticize command, troops refuse missions, the government is in crisis, or there is strong foreign support for the mutiny, for example coupled with severe pay cuts and clear evidence of mutiny planning.
• No: In 2024, all military units remains loyal even in case of political instability because officers support command, troops follow orders, the military receives adequate pay, and there are no signs of mutiny planning or recent mutinies.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2024?
32% chance
Will Russia start another major wave of mobilization in 2024
23% chance
What will be true of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
Will there be a separate Ukrainian incursion into Russia before the end of 2024?
50% chance
Will there be another mutiny in Russia before 2025?
5% chance
Will Russia implement a major nationwide forced military mobilization for the Ukraine war before EOY 2024?
23% chance
Will there be a coup attempt in Ukraine in 2024?
14% chance
Will there be peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?
15% chance
Will Russia unilaterally reconstitute own government of Ukraine with self-appointed authorities in 2024?
18% chance
Will there be a successful coup in Russia by the end of 2024?
7% chance