Will Chicago see a temp below 40F after the given date
12
250Ṁ2530
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
YES
April 15
Resolved
YES
April 1
Resolved
YES
April 8
Resolved
NO
April 22
Resolved
NO
April 29
Resolved
NO
April 16

Official source is wunderground.com . We’ll use the midway weather station because wunderground supports calendar view for that station https://www.wunderground.com/calendar/us/il/chicago/KMDW

For the April 15 market as an example: If there are any readings after April 15 where the temperature is below 40 degrees Fahrenheit then that market will resolve as No. If we make it to June 1 and it has stayed above 40 then it resolves as Yes.

Same behavior for any other dates listed.

  • Update 2025-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Post-Day Readings: Only temperature readings recorded after the end of the specified day count. In other words, a low temperature on the day itself (e.g., April 1) does not affect the market.

    • Example for April 1 Market: The April 1 low below 40°F does not trigger resolution. Only a reading below 40°F after April 1 (such as on April 2 or later) will be considered.

    • Resolution Impact: The market will continue to have the possibility of a different outcome until a qualifying low (post-day reading under 40°F) is recorded before the market’s close date.

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