1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,675 | |
| 2 | Ṁ852 | |
| 3 | Ṁ147 | |
| 4 | Ṁ122 | |
| 5 | Ṁ78 |
@mods Creator account deleted. Extend the deadline? There are other markets asking the same thing. Maybe just N/A this.
@Primer creator account deleted so i think there's not much downside in just extending this market. close date now EOY
@Ziddletwix Thanks. One more market that requires mod action at EOY though, that's why I pitched N/A. Plus there's no resolution criteria. What if there'a "ChatGPT-4.5" or a "GPT 4.1", etc.
@Primer so it's definitely a bad market but i'm not sure it's so obviously incoherent that it should be automatically N/A-ed, given that there are 29 traders. (there are lots of similarly badly defined markets, & we don't generally N/A them proactively).
in most cases, you'd expect there to be some model that's fairly clearly called/intended as GPT 4.5 or 5 and this market will resolve as normal. a model called "4.1" almost certainly wouldn't resolve it, and if whether it's called "ChatGPT-4.5" vs "GPT-4.5" almost certainly wouldn't matter. i'm not ruling that as a mod, just stating what seems fairly obvious to me. i also fully agree that there may be edge cases and someone shows up and tries to argue a resolution one way or another like any market in which case resolution will get punted to the mods. but that's true of all rules disputes—this is a fairly bad market so if one is wary of rules disputes i personally would advise them to not bet on a badly defined market.
@Ziddletwix Sorry, my intention wasn't to steal that much of your time, on the contrary. But as we're already discussing: Maybe it would be an option to sort of string resolutions together (in such cases as here)? There's for example https://manifold.markets/theshortbread/will-there-be-a-gpt-45-model-before which is also not great, but strictly better than this as it has criteria at all. We (as in "you mods") could put a "Resolves the same as market X" in the description here and now, and profit later, when all of those need to be resolved.