Q2 2022 US Nominal GDP Growth Rate (annualized)
Jul 28
M$30 bet
This question will resolve using the PROB resolution mapping between 0 and 20 percentage points for Q2 annualized growth as released in the Advance Q2 estimate released at the end of July and referenced in this chart series (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RP1Q027SBEA) titled GDP Percent Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. For example, in Q2 2021, the estimate was 13.4% growth for nominal GDP which would have resolved to 67% on this question because 67% * 20 percentage points = 13.4 percentage points. If the nominal growth is above 20 points, I will resolve to YES and if below 0 I will resolve to NO. Note that this is NOMINAL gross domestic product, not REAL gross domestic product. I am interested in Nominal GDP futures markets to guide central bank policy (see https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/beckworth-ngdp-targeting-mercatus-special-study-v1.pdf for more background).
Wait until we actually have decent numerical markets.