[planecrash] Gur pbairefngvba orgjrra Xrygunz naq gur cvg svryq jnf n cresbeznapr sbe Noebtnvy
resolved Jan 5

The conversation between Keltham and the pit field was a performance for Abrogail

Close date updated to 2022-12-18 3:59 pm

This is not a promise but I am finding it somewhat difficult to imagine worlds in which this market and https://manifold.markets/aps/planecrash-is-the-pit-fiend-details both resolve NO.

Close date updated to 2022-12-25 3:59 pm

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:

I consider the revelation in https://glowfic.com/replies/1899237#reply-1899237 to be pretty damn close to confirmation that this market should resolve YES, but will leave it open a little longer while things are still in flux.

WARNING: An inadvertently posted and removed tag means that other users may have nonpublic information on this market. Trade further at your own risk.

I assume this resolves based on whether the Pit Fiend was performing, and not just based on whether Keltham was optimizing over what impressions Abrogail got?

predicted YES

@April Yes, it has to be a coordinated performance.

@MichaelBlume If the Pit Fiend is an illusion or otherwise a nonentity incapable of coordination, but all participating parties (besides Abrogail) were coordinating, does this still resolve Yes?

predicted YES

@MichaelBlume You maybe want to clarify in the description how resolution of this market depends on that market?

predicted YES

@EliezerYudkowsky I'm not making any hard and fast claims about linkages with that market. I can imagine a lot of worlds where they resolve in opposite directions, I can imagine some worlds where they both resolve YES (Keltham was collaborating with an actual pit fiend), I have some difficulty imagining worlds where they both resolve NO (someone was pretending to be a pit fiend but also had a sincere dispute with Keltham about the disposition of Abrogail??).

I myself have been trading on the assumption that they are pretty unlikely to both resolve NO

predicted YES

@MichaelBlume Will this market resolve YES if the conversation is a performance but one targeted primarily at Asmodeus or Otolmens, rather than at Abrogail?

predicted YES

@AndrewHyer I guess that would be a NO, which answers my question about how both markets could resolve NO.