
The conversation between Keltham and the pit field was a performance for Abrogail
Close date updated to 2022-12-18 3:59 pm
This is not a promise but I am finding it somewhat difficult to imagine worlds in which this market and https://manifold.markets/aps/planecrash-is-the-pit-fiend-details both resolve NO.
Close date updated to 2022-12-25 3:59 pm
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I consider the revelation in https://glowfic.com/replies/1899237#reply-1899237 to be pretty damn close to confirmation that this market should resolve YES, but will leave it open a little longer while things are still in flux.
@MichaelBlume If the Pit Fiend is an illusion or otherwise a nonentity incapable of coordination, but all participating parties (besides Abrogail) were coordinating, does this still resolve Yes?
@MichaelBlume You maybe want to clarify in the description how resolution of this market depends on that market?
@EliezerYudkowsky I'm not making any hard and fast claims about linkages with that market. I can imagine a lot of worlds where they resolve in opposite directions, I can imagine some worlds where they both resolve YES (Keltham was collaborating with an actual pit fiend), I have some difficulty imagining worlds where they both resolve NO (someone was pretending to be a pit fiend but also had a sincere dispute with Keltham about the disposition of Abrogail??).
I myself have been trading on the assumption that they are pretty unlikely to both resolve NO
@MichaelBlume Will this market resolve YES if the conversation is a performance but one targeted primarily at Asmodeus or Otolmens, rather than at Abrogail?
@AndrewHyer I guess that would be a NO, which answers my question about how both markets could resolve NO.