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I consider the revelation in https://glowfic.com/replies/1899237#reply-1899237 to be pretty damn close to confirmation that this market should resolve YES, but will leave it open a little longer while things are still in flux.

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I assume this resolves based on whether the Pit Fiend was performing, and not just based on whether Keltham was optimizing over what impressions Abrogail got?

@April Yes, it has to be a coordinated performance.

@MichaelBlume If the Pit Fiend is an illusion or otherwise a nonentity incapable of coordination, but all participating parties (besides Abrogail) were coordinating, does this still resolve Yes?

@Nexidava Yes

Related market https://manifold.markets/aps/planecrash-is-the-pit-fiend-details

@MichaelBlume You maybe want to clarify in the description how resolution of this market depends on that market?

@EliezerYudkowsky I'm not making any hard and fast claims about linkages with that market. I can imagine a lot of worlds where they resolve in opposite directions, I can imagine some worlds where they both resolve YES (Keltham was collaborating with an actual pit fiend), I have some difficulty imagining worlds where they both resolve NO (someone was pretending to be a pit fiend but also had a sincere dispute with Keltham about the disposition of Abrogail??).

I myself have been trading on the assumption that they are pretty unlikely to both resolve NO

@MichaelBlume Will this market resolve YES if the conversation is a performance but one targeted primarily at Asmodeus or Otolmens, rather than at Abrogail?

@AndrewHyer I guess that would be a NO, which answers my question about how both markets could resolve NO.