The probability of this market resolving N/A just took a serious hit.

@Mich love to see it 🧡

Bingo markets are fun and I of course think it's a good idea in general, but it depends on what you'd like to get out of it. If you imagined running a bingo market and the moment it's all done and resolved, what would be marks of 'success' (things that made it feel like a good idea that was worth your time) at that point?

I'm an obvious yes because I'm pro-bingo market and pro-personal-life-prop-bets but I think it would be helpful to know a little more about what might make it feel like a good or bad idea by your measure. Or, what's causing you to hesitate making it.

Congrats on the internship!!

@shankypanky that's an interesting question - and thanks !

I think the reasons I'm considering it are that it sounds fun, and that maybe some people will suggest me nice things to do that I wouldn't have done / thought of otherwise (I'm considering tipping the best suggestions if I do create the bingo).

For resolution of whether it was a good idea, I'm thinking about just using my subjective impression afterwards. It's really more about what future me will think or how future me will feel in hindsight than about what right-now-me would think in foresight.

Some factors that could tilt the scale towards the "not so good idea" side would be excessive shenanigans with market resolution - since now I've only ran markets with clearly defined criteria and a quite high level of provability ; or disclosing something due to the bingo and then wishing I hadn't for any unplanned reason.

@Mich got it - those are valid things to consider.

letting people add options definitely means a little more participation than you would have on predefined markets which could - but shouldn't - increase any anxiety. you can be clear about what you will and won't accept and include a caveat about NAing certain submissions (whether they're unserious, too obvious, spam, etc.) as it's your market. if you're concerned about disclosing info, you can consider things you know you wouldn't like to share whether that's details of your job, romantic life, etc. and that will also allow you to be discerning. as far as provability, I think most people generally know personal life props are somewhat of a trust-based system and personally I have yet to see someone dispute a resolution.

can't account for everything but don't worry that the market is out of your control!

If you’re allowing activity on this market to influence you, and you’re resolving N/A if you don’t do it, then the market probability will be biased upward. For example, if I bet it down to 10% and left a comment that convinced you not to do it, I wouldn’t get any profit, so I’m encouraged not to do this.

My recommendation is that if you don’t do it, you resolve to your subjective probability (perhaps equal to the market) of whether you would’ve thought it was a good idea.

@Conflux yeah you're right. But I already set the rules and there are already bets. If I don't create a bingo market, I will tip whoever is in the set of eligible people and gave the best set of arguments for not doing it something between 10 and 200 M depending how good I think the arguments were and how much their NO payout is.

The set of eligible people is composed of users holding NO shares at market close and having posted a comment with the word "platypus" (I'm not kidding, I just want to select attentive readers) in it anytime between their first NO bet on this market and market close. Bots can't be eligible.

In the event somehow I don't create a bingo market and the set of eligible people is empty, well, no tip then.

@Mich Ok! It’s generally considered fine to tweak resolution criteria right after making a market, but it’s fine not to do that. Your proposal sounds like it will decrease the amount of distortion, I appreciate that.