Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
5
100Ṁ87
2027
29%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Leo XIV explicitly mentions CAIS Statement on AI Risk in any official papal document, speech, or publication. The document has to be authored or signed off by the pope. The market will resolve to "No" if there is no such mention by the end of 2027. Reliable sources for verification include official Vatican publications:
https://www.vatican.va
https://press.vatican.va

As an example of citation see the following text which Pope Francis cites the famous Dartmouth proposal:
https://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/congregations/cfaith/documents/rc_ddf_doc_20250128_antiqua-et-nova_en.html

Background

The CAIS Statement on AI Risk, released on May 30, 2023, highlighted the potential existential threats posed by artificial intelligence. Signatories included prominent figures such as Geoffrey Hinton, Yoshua Bengio, Demis Hassabis, Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, Stuart Russell, David Chalmers, Ray Kurzweil, Max Tegmark, Eliezer Yudkowsky, and Toby Ord.

Pope Leo XIV, elected in May 2025, has identified artificial intelligence as a significant challenge for humanity. In his inaugural address, he emphasized the need to address AI's impact on human dignity, justice, and labor. (apnews.com)

Associated markets:

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