Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?
resolved Jun 4

From https://metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/

Some 10½ months ago, on February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Their concept of operations apparently involved rapidly taking the capital, deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after fierce Ukrainian resistance and serious deficiencies in Russian military preparedness defeated this plan, Russia shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east, where conditions were more favorable. This offensive also bogged down quickly, and Russia's offensive ambitions continually narrowed into the summer until they were focused ultimately around the town of Bakhmut, where operations were being conducted largely by the "Wagner Group" private army under Yevgeny Prigozhin instead of by the regular Russian army.

By fall, Bakhmut was described as an obsession for Russia and a "meat grinder" into which its best forces were being wastefully thrown. Nonetheless, the Bakhmut offensive continued, with some analysts speculating that it was essentially a propaganda operation designed to provide Russian President Putin with a "victory" to offset mounting defeats, or even motivated by Prigozhin's personal financial interests.

On December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders. On January 6th, Russia launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar, where Ukrainian officials acknowledged the situation was "difficult.".

After months of fighting Russia made incremental gains in Bakhmut, with the city administrative building allegedly falling to Russian troops in April.

On May 5, the head of the Wagner Group, the Russian paramilitary organization leading the offensive, said that Wagner would withdraw from the battle because of lack of Russian support.

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predicted NO

@MetaculusBot @dglid Resolves NO :)

I think the chance is not 50%, but metacalculus had moved up to 35% & the Ukrainian army is doing counterattacks at the flanks https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1657202866627420165

predicted NO

For end of June:

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Worthless, poorly defined question that only proves manifold and metaculus are retards sites. The only good thing is manifold is too dumb to ban me.

You may instead check out my question.

@RjduDususu This coming from someone who has consistently made some of the worst markets on Manifold.

predicted NO

@RjduDususu I wonder why you wrote a thing like that. Do you want people to not trade on your market? Because after reading your comment I surely don't want to.

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predicted NO

@DjjRiri oh now I get it. You are just are paranoid and delusional. Must be frustrating for to try and do forecasting if your beliefs so rarely match up with reality. At least that would explain the nasty attitude you exhibit in your comments.

Maybe you should.... Get some fresh air? Glass of water? Touch some grass?

@Schwabilismus You made like 20 alts after getting banned and misresolving your AI market as well as others

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predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr lol, okay.

@Schwabilismus the repeated fails here are epic. Not only has every ai prediction ever made on manifold failed, but you're straight up pretending to not be a jack alt despite defending him and then voting opposite his predictions to donate mana.

predicted NO

@DjjRiri but maybe I am defending Jack because he is right? Also maybe he is very good looking and smart?

OR: I am really another user trying to strengthen your belief that I am an alt account of Jack? Sounds funny? Yeah why should someone say Jack is good looking if he wasn't Jack.

But wait: If I wasn't Jack, why would I bet against him to donate money? Coincidence? Nothing is ever a coincidence! That sounds like something an alt-account of Jack would say!

You really are onto something here.

And those darm mods don't care to do what you think is right. The world is so unjust. And you are so smart.

@ShadowyZephyr : I am not going to comment on those markets because I know s*** about them and I really don't care. Maybe tell Jack about them?

@Schwabilismus OMG, I just realize I tagged the wrong person, I meant to ping Djj Riri, who made 20 alts.

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr Aw, okay. That sounds reasonable. Thanks for the heads up.

predicted NO

Speaking from experience, talking to the troll (https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-mark-ingraham-be-gone-by-the-e#) is pointless, I just ignore Mark or leave a comment for everyone else explaining that they should ignore them, talking to Mark gets you nowhere.

predicted NO

@jack okay, thanks.