Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?
closes Dec 31

From https://metaculus.com//questions/15627/russian-nukes-in-belarus-before-2024/ In late March 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin has [announced plans](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65077687) to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. This would mark the first time Moscow would based nuclear arms outside Russia since the mid-1990s. Control of the arms will not be transferred to Minsk, and Putin compared the decision to the US stationing weapons in Europe. The construction of a storage facility for the weapons in Belarus is set to be completed by [July 1st](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/25/putin-says-will-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus). The decision follows a [joint statement](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65077687) from Russia and China urging that “all nuclear powers must not deploy their nuclear weapons beyond their national territories, and they must withdraw all nuclear weapons deployed abroad.” The US Defense Department stated it does not believe Russia intends to use the weapons and has not adjusted its strategic nuclear posture in response. ***Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?*** This question resolves as **Yes** if there are credible reports that Russia has at least one operational nuclear weapon (tactical or strategic) stationed in Belarus. This includes Russian warheads on Belarusian missiles or other relevant platforms. If Belarus ceases to exist as an independent country, for example if Russia formally announces that it has annexed Belarus or similar outcomes, this question resolves ambiguously. If there are no credible reports of this happening by 2024 and this question is resolved negatively in early 2024, but such reports surface at a later point in time, this question will not re-resolve. [fine-print] Credible sources have to rely on official statements by a government (or a governmental agency), even if these announcement remain probabilistic like "have high confidence that...:. Unnamed sources do not qualify for credible sources. [/fine-print]

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MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahambought Ṁ5 of NO

He ordered nuclear release in Ukraine 6mo ago and nothing happened.

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