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From https://metaculus.com/questions/16469/meghan-markles-book-outsells-harrys-spare/
Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. Markle has written a children’s book called The Bench, which was published in 2021 and became a New York Times bestseller. She has also hinted at writing another book, which some sources claim will be a memoir based on her secret diaries.
Prince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, is the younger son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana. He served in the British Army for 10 years and founded several charitable initiatives, such as the Invictus Games and Sentebale. He also co-created Archewell, a foundation that encompasses his and his wife’s media and philanthropic work. He published his memoir Spare in 2023, which detailed his life as a royal, his military service, his mental health struggles, his marriage to Markle, and his decision to leave the royal family. The book was a global sensation and sold over 3.2 million copies worldwide in the first week of publication, making it the fastest-selling non-fiction book of all time.
Both Markle and Harry have been the subject of intense public scrutiny and media attention, especially after their explosive interview with Oprah Winfrey in 2021, where they made several allegations against the royal family and the British press. Their popularity and controversy have fueled interest in their books, which offer their personal perspectives on their lives and experiences.
This question asks whether Markle’s upcoming book will sell more copies than Harry’s Spare in the first year of publication. It is based on the assumption that Markle will release a nonfiction, non-children’s book of which she is the claimed lead author by July 1, 2027.