From https://metaculus.com//questions/15622/deutsche-bank-collapse-before-june-2023/ In the wake of the [2023 banking turmoil](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/how-2023-banking-crisis-unfolded-2023-03-24/), triggerd by the collapse of [Silicon Valley Bank](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forrester/2023/03/24/the-silicon-valley-bank-crisis-highlights-the-importance-of-resilience-and-the-imperative-of-trust/?sh=626f335f54fa), strong central bank and government support has so far warded off a full-blown crisis, due to [strong responses by the Fed](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230319a.htm) and the Swiss central bank and government by facilitating the UBS takeover of [Credit Suisse](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-deal-halted-crisis-092818510.html). However, on March 24, 2023, shares of [Deutsche Bank](https://www.ft.com/content/a730721b-afaf-4e81-b5aa-dcbbd98f3bd3) fell as much as 14%, closing the day down over 8%. This raised fears of a wider contagion and as such about the financial health of Deutsche Bank, the potential implications of its collapse for the German and wider EU banking sector, as well as the potential need for central bank/government support similar to Credit Suisse. [German chancellor Olaf Scholz](https://www.ft.com/content/963d8fde-1bd0-4285-98f4-715248119f2a) “has rejected comparisons between Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse”: > “Deutsche Bank has fundamentally modernised and reorganised its business and is a very profitable bank,” Scholz said at a summit in Brussels after being asked if the lender was the new Credit Suisse. “There is no reason to be concerned about it.” As some have pointed out, this Deutsche Bank scare has forced the German chancellor to borrow line from Silicon Valley Bank CEO: ‘[No cause for any kind of concern’](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-scare-forces-german-191822318.html). While there remains significant uncertainty about the size of the problem and the potential solutions, [some have worried](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/deutsche-banks-collapse-would-be-a-threat-to-the-whole-eurozone/) that: > A Deutsche collapse could bring the euro down with it. Unless the government and the central bank can shore it up over the weekend, very soon the entire currency will be in deep trouble. ***Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?*** This question will resolve as **Yes** if Deutsche Bank experiences any of the following scenarios based on reports by credible sources before June 1, 2023. For resolution of this question, official announcements of any of these scenarios suffice for positive resolution for as long as they are definite in their future implementation (for example, an announcement of a government bailout is sufficient for resolution, even if the actual bailout has not happened yet for as long as the announcement is clear that it has been agreed upon). Scenarios: 1) Collapse: Bankruptcy, insolvency, or general cessation of operations. 2) Full Acquisition: Acquisition of at least 50% of the voting shares by another financial institution. 3) Partial Acquisition: Sale of one or more of its business units or divisions to other financial institutions. 4) Break-up: Split of Deutsche Bank into at least two separate entities. 5) Government Bailout: Government-backed provision of financial assistance. 6) Central Bank Support: Direct intervention from the European Central Bank. 7) International Support: Financial assistance from international institutions such as the IMF or central banks from other countries.