From https://metaculus.com//questions/15620/new-copper-ath-in-2023/ Copper is a vital element in the global shift towards clean energy sources, as it plays a significant role in the development and implementation of renewable energy technologies like wind and solar power. According to a [Copper Development Association (CDA)](https://www.copper.org/resources/market_data/infographics/copper-and-the-clean-energy-transition-brochure.pdf) ) summary, the use of copper in solar and wind energy generation is 4-6 times higher than in fossil fuel-based systems. This is because copper's excellent conductivity and durability make it ideal for efficiently distributing electricity over long distances from wind and solar farms to households and factories. Additionally, copper is a crucial component in electric vehicles (EVs), with battery electric vehicles containing approximately 183 lbs of copper (more than 4 times the amount needed for ICE cars). This metal is used in various parts of an EV, including the electric motor, battery, inverters, and wiring. Furthermore, the growing demand for charging infrastructure to support the increasing number of EVs on the road adds to the rising copper demand, as copper is extensively used in constructing charging stations. As the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/c3da84fd-efe2-4487-accb-511a8104ee3e?shareType=nongift) reports, Trafigura forecasts a surge of copper prices in 2023 due to a rebound in Chinese demand as well as already low stockpiles. > “I think it’s very likely in the next 12 months that we will see a new high,” Bintas said at the FT Commodity Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland. > Goldman Sachs expects the world to run out of visible copper inventories by the third quarter of this year if demand in China continues to power ahead as strongly as it did in February. This increase in global demand is facing [struggles to increase production in the near-term](https://www.ft.com/content/c3da84fd-efe2-4487-accb-511a8104ee3e?shareType=nongift): > Mining executives say it is increasingly difficult to boost new supply of copper with declining grades. Mining billionaire Robert Friedland told the Financial Times it took him 28 years to develop the vast Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is ramping up to supply 650,000 tonnes by the end of next year. ***Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?*** This question will resolve based on [HG:CMX historical data provided by the NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/hg:cmx). This question will resolve as **Yes** if copper trades higher than $5.0395 at any day of 2023. To resolve this question, the ‘Historical Data’ of the [resolution source](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/hg:cmx/historical) will be used. This data can be downloaded directly and be sorted by the ‘High’ of each day. If any day of 2023 has a ‘High’ of above 5.0395 (the previous ATH from 03/07/2022), this question resolves positively. If it does not, this question resolves negatively.
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I firmly believe that Copper prices will be lower only because of the upcoming possible difficulty in getting it. One of the main world producers, the Democratic Republic of Congo is set to have a change in power in the upcoming months. Given the history of political instability usually surrounding election times in the country, there is expected to be a governmental freeze of many trading routes that will severely impact the exportation of copper out of the country for a few months.
Furthermore, there has been some dispute over the royalties of a large amount of copper from one of the country's top producers.
@KarelKasongo The bet investigates the possible all-time hike in copper prices due to its increasing demand in clean energy infrastructure and vehicles, as well as China’s spike in demand. The condition for “Yes” on the bet is that copper trades for $5.0395 or higher on any day in 2023.
While this argument agrees with the previously made “No” bet, it disagrees with its basis. The previous “No” bet suggests that prices will not spike that high due to the difficulty in obtaining copper, disputes in inventory royalties and predicted political unrest in DRC, one of the main copper suppliers.
These mentioned factors connote a shortage in supply, which would mean copper prices do rise, invalidating the argument that copper prices won’t spike in 2023. Alternatively, it can be argued that copper prices will rise due to said factors, but the commodity will not trade for $5.0395+ in 2023 because although Chinese demand is rising, China also claimed royalties for the 226509 copper inventory tonnes, which will be released strategically within the next 10 months, providing a market surplus for the remainder of 2023 (Chebet 2023) (Mancombu 2023).
Additionally, historical data of copper prices depict gradual increase in copper prices, but the price never hit $5.0395, even in 2020-2021 where there was strained supply and increased demand for copper. Refer to submit for graphs/figures.