Will Intel need a bailout in 2025?
7
100Ṁ220
Dec 30
10%
chance

Resolves YES if, between January 1, 2025 00:00 ET and December 31, 2025 23:59 ET, a U.S. government entity announces or enacts company-specific emergency assistance to Intel Corporation intended to prevent its insolvency or default.

Qualifying assistance may include:

  • Capital injection

  • Rescue loan

  • Debt or equity purchase

  • Guarantee or backstop explicitly naming Intel

Verification sources (any one suffices):

Explicitly excluded from counting as a bailout:

  • Broad-based programs available to many firms (e.g., general Federal Reserve 13(3) facilities)

  • Routine procurement contracts

  • Tax credits

  • CHIPS Act grants/loans announced before the resolution window or awarded based on project performance

  • Other industrial-policy subsidies not framed as emergency rescues to avert Intel’s failure

Resolves NO if:

  • Intel enters bankruptcy or restructures without such government rescue

  • No qualifying action occurs in the resolution window

If Intel changes its name or merges, apply the same criteria to the successor entity.


Background

  • In Nov 2024, Intel was awarded up to $8.5 B in CHIPS Act grants and about $11 B in loans—industrial-policy subsidies tied to fabrication projects. These are ordinary-course incentives, not emergency rescues.

  • Intel’s 2025 filings show recognition of CHIPS Act grants and tax credits—these remain explicitly excluded under the market rules.

  • On Aug 5, 2025, Fitch downgraded Intel’s credit rating to BBB, citing pressure on credit quality but noting ~$21.2 B in liquidity and undrawn revolvers.

  • Post-Dodd-Frank, the Federal Reserve cannot extend single-firm 13(3) emergency facilities. A company-specific Intel rescue would likely require Treasury or Congressional action, or an explicitly named guarantee/backstop.

  • Media may refer to CHIPS Act disbursements or state incentives as “bailouts”; such coverage does not trigger YES unless the aid meets the emergency, Intel-specific, insolvency-prevention criteria.

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