Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden before Jan 21, 2025?
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resolved Dec 2
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YES

Will resolve to yes if he issues any pardon or commutation of sentence.

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@Lorelai What an objectively horrible argument

@Lorelai that BrooklynDad Defiant account is everything I hated about old Twitter. And his hair has to be much grayer now. Like years ago every time I logged in my For You had one of this tweets.

@CraigTalbert He actually blocked me years ago lol

I will say though, the coverage of this pardon is not proportionate to the coverage of previous pardons relative to the crimes that were charged. However, it's not hard to see why...

@Riley12 not really an arguement, more an observation

@Lorelai it's definitely an argument

@Riley12 it's definitely an observation

@Lorelai Clearly arguing that the news is engaging in selective outrage.

It's proportionate to the length of the pardon which is longer than Nixon's. Nixon's pardon also got some coverage in the press.

Hard to say that it's disproportionate to the crimes given that it's a blanket pardon that covers murder, treason, rape, and genocide, assuming that blanket pardons are constitutional.

@Extremelyaccurate has 63K of profit on this question but on the leaderboard he is losing 11k for this question. The leaderboard coding has to be fixed. Just do the difference in the monthly balance change. Nothing else makes sense and whatever is being done now is broken.

@brianwang it just only counts trades from this month. their only trades in this market in november were sells of yes.

@SemioticRivalry I understand there are reasons to justify why it is the way it is. BUT the reasons are wrong and broken. Nonsensical results are produced

@brianwang It's not nonsensical. In November, he made trades on this market that resulted in losses - he'd have 11k more mana if he didn't make them.

They could do a lot better explaining it, but once you understand that it's only counting trades in the month itself it's not all that complicated.

@brianwang

Just do the difference in the monthly balance change. Nothing else makes sense and whatever is being done now is broken.

the goal of leagues is to provide narrow, short term incentive for trading. I do not think people would find "monthly change in total profit" to be very satisfying when (1) it arbitrarily anchors to whatever your portfolio value happened to be at the start of the month (i.e. if was a brief random, the whole month you'll be deep in the red), & (2) some users have literally millions in investments so leagues will be dominated by small shifts in the value of bets they placed months before.

"i want to be rewarded for trades i placed months ago" is exactly how profit works. the goal of manifold is profit, and that's what matters. leagues is a separate, short term, supplementary/optional thing, because people like a minigame with short term incentives. "monthly change in portfolio value" would not help with that.

@Ziddletwix then provide information when trades are being made about the in-month impacts and have an interface to the portfolio of trades that will enter into the month. Also, have an interface to each traders entire portfolio. Old trades are difficult to find and there is no columns for live monthly trades. Actually have simple and complete interfaces to each persons full portfolio and each persons monthly portfolio.

Damn, that's pretty blatant corruption and nepotism, legacy fucked

@TheAllMemeingEye Not nepotism, nepotism is when you give your kid a job. Just normal Delaware style corruption.

@TiredCliche where do I learn about this Delaware style corruption, or is it only because Biden used to represent the state in the senate? Sorry, I’m American, just not North American.

@JaimeSantaCruz Sort of a joke, Delaware is the "corporate location" of most of our big banks, and that's because Delaware passed favorable laws encouraging banks to move their operations to the state. No limits on interest rates, no limits on fees, tax breaks, that sort of thing.
Chase, J.P. Morgan and Citi are all HQ'ed in Delaware.
I don't know if Biden is to blame for any of this, but, yeah. Hedging around the law for personal benefit is kind of a Delaware tradition.

Tbh expected this but in grand scheme of things pales in comparison to Trump's corruption, rapey-ness, and out-and-out fascism.

@FedorShabashev actually not copium to be pissed that a corrupt rapist is set to be president, maybe you don't understand what copium is? your name sounds russian. Are you a troll?

@FedorShabashev Bubbles won money by betting yes. Hardly cope.

@Lorelai https://www.nysd.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/2023-01/Carroll%20II%20DI%2038%20Opinion.pdf

Jean Carroll "rape" case was definitely totally fabricated BS.


According to the complaint [(in Carroll I, which in these respects is identical

to that in this case)], Mr. Trump, then a private citizen, encountered Ms. Carroll at

the Bergdorf Goodman department store in Manhattan some time between the fall of

1995 and the spring of 1996. Ms. Carroll, who was an advice columnist appearing

on television, alleges that Mr. Trump recognized her and asked her to help him select

a present for a woman who was not with him at the store. The two eventually went

to the lingerie department, where, according to the complaint, Mr. Trump insisted

that the plaintiff try on a bodysuit. Ms. Carroll alleges next that what she first

perceived as playful banter took a dark turn when Mr. Trump closed the door of a

dressing room, pushed her against a wall, and began kissing her without her consent.

She claims that she pushed Mr. Trump away and laughed at him, and that he then

pressed her against the wall once more, pulled down her tights, and forcibly raped her

for several minutes until she managed to push him off and flee the store.

Welp… I think i’m going to be betting more pessimistically from now on. I chose to trust, to have optimism, and I keep getting burned for it.

Press F to pay respects

@crowlsyong put not your faith in princes (regardless of party).

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