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MANIFOLD
Will at least 4 of Nectome's first 20 clients have significant damage?
1
Ṁ1kṀ400
2040
75%
chance

Nectome is a brain preservation startup, comparable to cryonics. They are currently debuting their services, which they claim to be much higher quality than other organizations, but they have yet to preserve any clients.

This market resolves YES if, by 2040 there is strong evidence that at least 4 of the first 20 preservations that Nectome attempts have significant damage such that restoring them to life is either impossible or would result in significant losses to their personality, memory, et cetera. If, when the market closes, there is no significant signs of such damage, this market resolves NO. If Nectome fails to preserve 20 people I will attempt to resolve N/A. If it's not clear whether there's "strong evidence" I will use my best judgment. As such, I won't bet.

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You think this site will be around in 2040? I can't tell if that's optimism, or pessimism.