Resolution. Resolves YES if a Wayback Machine capture timestamped at or before 07:00 GMT on Thursday 29 October 2026 shows both of these live at, or linked from, policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026: a written briefing with named authors on the Budget's household measures, and the interactive dashboard updated for the Budget. PolicyEngine will submit a capture at publication and any trader may submit one. PolicyEngine's Nuffield Foundation grant commits it to overnight Budget analysis; 07:00 is the team's own target for that.
PolicyEngine controls or influences whether this market resolves YES. PolicyEngine staff and contractors do not trade in this market.
If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.
Clarification, 11 October 2026. A capture counts if the Wayback Machine's replay of it, opened in a browser, shows the briefing (with its named authors) and the updated dashboard at the page or linked from it. The capture's Wayback timestamp governs, even if the capture becomes viewable later. If no qualifying capture exists by 07:00 GMT, including because of an archive outage, the market resolves NO.
1,000Clarification added to the description (11 October 2026). A capture counts if the Wayback Machine's replay of it, opened in a browser, shows the briefing (with its named authors) and the updated dashboard at the page or linked from it. The capture's Wayback timestamp governs, even if the capture becomes viewable later. If no qualifying capture exists by 07:00 GMT, including because of an archive outage, the market resolves NO.