Resolution. Resolves YES if HM Treasury's Budget 2026 policy decisions table, as first published on Budget day (it was Table 4.1 at Budget 2025, published as a spreadsheet and in the Budget document), shows +£2,000 million or more for 2029-30 in its 'Total tax policy decisions' row, where a positive figure means the measures raise money for the Exchequer. Resolves NO if that figure is below +£2,000 million, including any net tax cut. The total is read as printed, whatever impacts the Treasury includes in it. Measures announced since the March 2026 Spring Statement count only if they are in that total, and a separate table of previously announced measures does not count. If the table has no row with that name, its equivalent total for tax decisions governs. If the Treasury publishes no such total, the figure in the OBR Economic and fiscal outlook published with the Budget for the direct effect of the Government's tax policy decisions in 2029-30 governs, and a tax rise of £2.0 billion or more resolves YES. For reference, the row showed +£23,150 million for 2029-30 at Budget 2025, when the OBR described the same Budget as raising taxes by £26 billion in 2029-30; the two sources can differ, and this market follows the Treasury row.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, before the speech and before the Treasury publishes the policy decisions table.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.