YES if the Budget announces that short-term or holiday lets in England will be charged council tax, or a second-homes premium, in place of business rates.
Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.
The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.
If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.
Clarification, 11 October 2026. YES requires that holiday or short-term lets in England as a category be charged council tax (with or without the second-homes premium) instead of business rates. Raising the availability or letting-days tests, or restricting Small Business Rates Relief for holiday lets, resolves NO on its own. No one had traded this market when this was added.
1,000Clarification added to the description (11 October 2026). YES requires that holiday or short-term lets in England as a category be charged council tax (with or without the second-homes premium) instead of business rates. Raising the availability or letting-days tests, or restricting Small Business Rates Relief for holiday lets, resolves NO on its own. No one had traded this market when this was added.