YES if the Budget announces an increase in any gambling duty rate (for example machine games duty) beyond the changes legislated at Budget 2025.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. The excluded Budget 2025 changes are Remote Gaming Duty at 40% from 1 April 2026 and the new 25% remote betting rate within General Betting Duty from 1 April 2027, with their stated exceptions. A further increase in any gambling duty rate counts even if it is confined to some products or premises (for example machine games duty on some machine types). Reconfirming the Budget 2025 changes, freezing duty bands, or changing a separate statutory levy does not count. Bringing forward the start of the 25% remote betting rate, without a higher rate, does not count. The creator holds 19.9 YES shares in this market.