YES if the Budget announces a new ISA product for first-time buyers that replaces the Lifetime ISA or closes it to new savers.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. YES requires the Budget-day speech or documents to confirm a first-time buyer ISA that replaces the Lifetime ISA or closes it to new savers. Confirmation of the replacement HM Treasury announced on 22 June 2026 counts, including through final parameters or a launch date; immediate implementation, and closure for existing holders, are not required. A promise of a future consultation response, or another ISA alongside Lifetime ISAs still open to new savers, resolves NO.