This resolves Yes if the winning option on https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/time-person-of-the-year-exact-headl?r=TWF4RQ was at 10% or higher at the time the headline was released.
Resolves No if the winning option was Other.
1,000đ Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | áč105 | |
| 2 | áč74 | |
| 3 | áč49 | |
| 4 | áč47 | |
| 5 | áč21 |
@LeoCaussan Agreed! From what I can tell, the winning option was added after the title was announced (does anyone have a good timestamp for that?), so at the time of the announcement it was still part of Other.
Youâre right that they arguably didnât âpredictâ it as it says in the question; it wasnât there at the time the headline was leaked.
But using the more specific resolution criteria in the description, it was there at the time the headline was âreleasedâ.
And this does at least capture that Manifold was correct about the validity of the leak
@LeoCaussan I resolved yes because the winning option was over 10% at market close, which was before the official release. It seems to me that "release" shouldn't include accidental leaks.
This was not a super well thought-out market, I should have included something to make last-minute jumps not count.
I agree that you were correct in spirit, but I'm going by strictly what was written in the description.