Resolves yes if I feel in 2040 that bitcoin is a good investment option, comparable to treasury bonds or stocks.
This could happen because it outperforms or performs similarly to the stock market over that time period (and seems like it will continue to do so) or if it becomes a widely used, mainstream currency.
The price shooting up overnight will not resolve this market yes because I don't consider getting lucky a good investment strategy. The same does not apply to sudden drops in value that are significantly greater or more frequent than traditional investment options; if bitcoin often crashes in 2040, I will likely not consider it a robust long term investment. If the market cap for bitcoin is much smaller than it currently is or there is far less trading of bitcoin, I will likely not consider it a good investment option.
I do not currently own bitcoin and I don't plan on buying any in the near future (I do not currently consider it a robust long term investment.)
Because this is subjective, I will not bet on this market.
If I am unavailable to resolve this market in 2040, it resolves to the fraction of a poll or N/A if no one cares enough to make a poll.