Will bitcoin hit $300k before 2040-01-23?

1kṀ19k

2040

81%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if the price of bitcoin hits 300,000 USD before the close date. To be resolved by CoinMarketCap price, or whatever other suitable source I can find if that site shuts down.

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opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 69% order

@Choms posted 5k YES order at 69😏% if anyone wants to take it, you can thank the loans

bought Ṁ200 YES

I don't like so long dated markets but well, at least it's gonna resolve before 2030

tomek, wanna liquidate?

47% chance of hitting 300k (for however short a time) is implying an ev of 150k, which is a CAGR of (150/26)^(1/16.33)-1 = 11%

@JonathanRay Is this just thinking randomly, or are trying to judge the probability here based on the implied recommendation?

It seems to me obviously true (without any calculation) that buying Bitcoin with the plan of holding it for years is very high expected value at its current price. So the fact that the probabilities here imply the same thing after calculation is not evidence against them.