Will bitcoin hit \$300k before 2040-01-23?
Basic
21
17k
2040
50%
chance

Resolves YES if the price of bitcoin hits 300,000 USD before the close date. To be resolved by CoinMarketCap price, or whatever other suitable source I can find if that site shuts down.

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tomek, wanna liquidate?

47% chance of hitting 300k (for however short a time) is implying an ev of 150k, which is a CAGR of (150/26)^(1/16.33)-1 = 11%

@JonathanRay Is this just thinking randomly, or are trying to judge the probability here based on the implied recommendation?

It seems to me obviously true (without any calculation) that buying Bitcoin with the plan of holding it for years is very high expected value at its current price. So the fact that the probabilities here imply the same thing after calculation is not evidence against them.

@DavidBolin I’m not disagreeing with that. Just translating probabilities into APYs

predicts NO

Related markets, designed to represent about the same rate of growth (about 15.57% per year)