Resolves YES if the price of bitcoin hits 300,000 USD before the close date. To be resolved by CoinMarketCap price, or whatever other suitable source I can find if that site shuts down.
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@JonathanRay Is this just thinking randomly, or are trying to judge the probability here based on the implied recommendation?
It seems to me obviously true (without any calculation) that buying Bitcoin with the plan of holding it for years is very high expected value at its current price. So the fact that the probabilities here imply the same thing after calculation is not evidence against them.
predicts NO
Related markets, designed to represent about the same rate of growth (about 15.57% per year)