Will H5N1 kill more than 10 million people in 2023?
Basic
22
Ṁ4471resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question resolves to YES if during the early months of 2024, a consensus of credible scientific estimates indicate that Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 killed more than 10 million people worldwide in the year 2023. A consensus is defined as unanimity among all highly credible scientific publications that presently exist at that time. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ39 | |
| 2 | Ṁ33 | |
| 3 | Ṁ12 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
Sort by:
Here's a link to one of them: https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-h5n1-kill-more-than-10-million
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
69% chance
Will 25 or more states be affected by H5N1 by the end of March 2025?
28% chance
If H5N1 pandemic occurs by 2026, what will be the confirmed case fatality rate for humans in first 3 months?
Will there be 10k or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?
20% chance
Will there be at least 1000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?
22% chance
Will more than 10,000 Americans die of H5N1 bird flu by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of H5N1 by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will there be at least 1000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1 in the US in 2025?
9% chance
Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?
10% chance