This question resolves to YES if the market probability after close, rounded to the nearest integer percentage, is divisible by 3%.
For the purposes of this market, I will not count 0% as being divisible by 3%. I don't care if it's technically true. Consider yourself warned.
Jun 15, 11:09am: and just as a clarification, I don't mean anything special by "evenly" divisible - the quotient need not be an even number or anything. Probabilities of 3%, 6%, 9%.... 96%, 99% all count. In the future I'll likely just leave "evenly" out of the title.
💬 Proven correct
What I'm mostly asking is, why wouldn't someone moderately rich just put M$1200 at the last instant to put the price at 99%, and win lots of money? Even though I don't think this scenario is more likely than not, it doesn't feel like there's 6% chance it happens either?
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Bionic made M$80!
What I'm mostly asking is, why wouldn't someone moderately rich just put M$1200 at the last instant to put the price at 99%, and win lots of money? Even though I don't think this scenario is more likely than not, it doesn't feel like there's 6% chance it happens either?
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You would need to hit the 98.5 to 99.4% range which I think is too much uncertainty for someone to attempt
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@ahalekelly I'm aware, but there are also 30 other ranges like that that could be hit. I feel like it wouldn't be very hard, for someone moderately rich and motivated, to invest last second and hit something divisible by 3; and that whenever the percentage of this market drops below 33%, this (not hypothetical) person is even more strongly incentivized to do so.
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If you say there's a 60% chance it's zero, 10% chance it's 99, 30% chance it's a random number in between, that means it should be worth 19
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@ahalekelly I would give a 30% it hits 0 or 1, 35% it hits 99, 10% it hits 100, and 25% it hits something else, and about 50% of that 20% would be on words divisible by 3. This is almost only because I have a nearly flawless track record in investing last second and getting big gains from it, but I'm also worrying that this made me overconfident. Regardless, my intuitive percentage rn is closer to 40% than the current 26%; although your confidence in the other direction makes me moderately less confident of that. (unrelatedly: Woah new tips are so cool, and a great idea (I'd give a big tip to whoever came up with them))
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Hmm maybe I'm overconfident in the last-second ability of people, not sure. Like if this becomes a really massive market, even whales might not be able to make it go to 99% as they please? I have money, but not enough money to move the percentages around if people invest too much, here. So maybe like 35% that it hits a random number in between? Idk, I'm just flailing, here
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Interesting. I have limited and not particularly successful experience with last-minute betting, which is definitely skewing my answer.
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@ahalekelly Windows & IOS. Not sure if I interpreted your question correctly.
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@ahalekelly Hmm... do you mind if I tell you after this market resolves? :D Not that I want to horde that info for myself, but this doesn't seem to my benefit at all here :P
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@ahalekelly So now I can say. I don't have a fancy technique, to be honest. I heard that you use bots sometimes, but the only thing I do is to invest by hand in the last few seconds, and since the API works in ~2-4 seconds depending on markets per my experimentation, timing it at precisely 3-4 seconds before market close has never failed to work for me.
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@BionicD0LPH1N Huh. Yeah when I was trying to do it manually I was refreshing the page to get the latest info which I realized was a big mistake. And I wasn't sure how long the delay was. The bots are still very early days.
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@ahalekelly To get the percentages to update, just clicking on the graph tends to work for me. I used to just refresh quickly but that's just not possible to do while being competitive in terms of speed.
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@BionicD0LPH1N Huh, I didn't know clicking the graph caused an update.
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@ahalekelly I just have a vague memory of it working, and maybe I over-updated. I just created a market, can you go on there and we can make a few tests? I feel like understanding how markets work precisely is worth a lot of money in the long term.
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@AdrianKelly "rounded to the nearest integer percentage" - so those would round to 1%, 99%, and 0% respectively (resolving NO, YES, and NO).
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Actually no. If it's impossible to control because of multiple people betting at the last minute, then EV should be 33%. (eg if you use a "divides by 3 without increasing the amount of digits after the decimal point" rule)
If you don't round decimal probabilities and anything with decimals resolves to No, then the market has a stable point and the market should go to No. A whale just needs to buy so much No that it can't go to 3%.
If you do round decimal probabilities, and 0%-0.4% resolve to Yes and 0.5% - 1.4% resolve to yes, that's a 50-50 Last Whale market. Maybe 45%
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@AdrianKelly per the description, I will resolve 0% as NO. I'm curious if you're correct about it equilibrating at 0%. The counterargument is that any whale who tries to do that provides a massive incentive for another whale to buy it up to 3% at the last minute.
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Yeah sorry I missed the critical part of the description, and good point about the asymmetric costs. You guys are right it's basically a last whale market
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@AdrianKelly yeah that's my instinct, that it's a last whale market with expected value close to 33%. Which makes the current valuation interesting.
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yeah, I missed that part too. I thought that a whale pushing in either direction would result in the YES win because 0 and 99 are both divisible by 3, but alas.
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Hmm but if it's trading at 33% at the last minute, whales would make more profit pushing it to Yes than No
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True, good point. Maybe then 50% is a more natural balance point?
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@ahalekelly mmm, actually it occurs to me a whale can just push this straight to 0% fairly easily at the last minute. Would've been harder to manipulate if I'd included 0% in the range of YES answers. Lesson for next time, I suppose.
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@ahalekelly it technically is, but per the original description of this market I'm not counting it as a valid answer (this time).
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