Will the probability after close be evenly divisible by 3%?
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resolved Jun 23
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This question resolves to YES if the market probability after close, rounded to the nearest integer percentage, is divisible by 3%.
For the purposes of this market, I will not count 0% as being divisible by 3%. I don't care if it's technically true. Consider yourself warned.
Jun 15, 11:09am: and just as a clarification, I don't mean anything special by "evenly" divisible - the quotient need not be an even number or anything. Probabilities of 3%, 6%, 9%.... 96%, 99% all count. In the future I'll likely just leave "evenly" out of the title.
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@ahalekelly I'm aware, but there are also 30 other ranges like that that could be hit. I feel like it wouldn't be very hard, for someone moderately rich and motivated, to invest last second and hit something divisible by 3; and that whenever the percentage of this market drops below 33%, this (not hypothetical) person is even more strongly incentivized to do so.
@ahalekelly I would give a 30% it hits 0 or 1, 35% it hits 99, 10% it hits 100, and 25% it hits something else, and about 50% of that 20% would be on words divisible by 3. This is almost only because I have a nearly flawless track record in investing last second and getting big gains from it, but I'm also worrying that this made me overconfident. Regardless, my intuitive percentage rn is closer to 40% than the current 26%; although your confidence in the other direction makes me moderately less confident of that. (unrelatedly: Woah new tips are so cool, and a great idea (I'd give a big tip to whoever came up with them))
Hmm maybe I'm overconfident in the last-second ability of people, not sure. Like if this becomes a really massive market, even whales might not be able to make it go to 99% as they please? I have money, but not enough money to move the percentages around if people invest too much, here. So maybe like 35% that it hits a random number in between? Idk, I'm just flailing, here
@ahalekelly Hmm... do you mind if I tell you after this market resolves? :D Not that I want to horde that info for myself, but this doesn't seem to my benefit at all here :P
@ahalekelly So now I can say. I don't have a fancy technique, to be honest. I heard that you use bots sometimes, but the only thing I do is to invest by hand in the last few seconds, and since the API works in ~2-4 seconds depending on markets per my experimentation, timing it at precisely 3-4 seconds before market close has never failed to work for me.
@BionicD0LPH1N Huh. Yeah when I was trying to do it manually I was refreshing the page to get the latest info which I realized was a big mistake. And I wasn't sure how long the delay was. The bots are still very early days.
@ahalekelly To get the percentages to update, just clicking on the graph tends to work for me. I used to just refresh quickly but that's just not possible to do while being competitive in terms of speed.
@ahalekelly I just have a vague memory of it working, and maybe I over-updated. I just created a market, can you go on there and we can make a few tests? I feel like understanding how markets work precisely is worth a lot of money in the long term.
@AdrianKelly "rounded to the nearest integer percentage" - so those would round to 1%, 99%, and 0% respectively (resolving NO, YES, and NO).
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