Will the probability after close be evenly divisible by 3%?
Resolved
YES
Jun 23
M\$1,029 bet
This question resolves to YES if the market probability after close, rounded to the nearest integer percentage, is divisible by 3%. For the purposes of this market, I will not count 0% as being divisible by 3%. I don't care if it's technically true. Consider yourself warned. Jun 15, 11:09am: and just as a clarification, I don't mean anything special by "evenly" divisible - the quotient need not be an even number or anything. Probabilities of 3%, 6%, 9%.... 96%, 99% all count. In the future I'll likely just leave "evenly" out of the title.

ðŸ’¬ Proven correct

Bionic bought M\$10 of YES
What I'm mostly asking is, why wouldn't someone moderately rich just put M\$1200 at the last instant to put the price at 99%, and win lots of money? Even though I don't think this scenario is more likely than not, it doesn't feel like there's 6% chance it happens either?
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Well done YES bettors!
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Bionic bought M\$4 of YES
I expected some sort of last-minute speed battle @ahalekelly
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Adrian is betting NO at 66%
@BionicD0LPH1N Oh shit I forgot :(
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Adrian is betting NO at 66%
That hurts
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Bionic is betting YES at 66%
@ahalekelly Oh damn :( happens to the best of us
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Bionic bought M\$5 of YES
So what am I missing here? Why is the price so low??
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Bionic bought M\$10 of YES
What I'm mostly asking is, why wouldn't someone moderately rich just put M\$1200 at the last instant to put the price at 99%, and win lots of money? Even though I don't think this scenario is more likely than not, it doesn't feel like there's 6% chance it happens either?
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Adrian bought M\$100 of NO
You would need to hit the 98.5 to 99.4% range which I think is too much uncertainty for someone to attempt
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Bionic is betting YES at 22%
@ahalekelly I'm aware, but there are also 30 other ranges like that that could be hit. I feel like it wouldn't be very hard, for someone moderately rich and motivated, to invest last second and hit something divisible by 3; and that whenever the percentage of this market drops below 33%, this (not hypothetical) person is even more strongly incentivized to do so.
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Adrian bought M\$50 of NO
Fair. I'm readjusting my price target from 5% to 15%
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Adrian is betting NO at 26%
If you say there's a 60% chance it's zero, 10% chance it's 99, 30% chance it's a random number in between, that means it should be worth 19
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Bionic bought M\$15 of YES
@ahalekelly I would give a 30% it hits 0 or 1, 35% it hits 99, 10% it hits 100, and 25% it hits something else, and about 50% of that 20% would be on words divisible by 3. This is almost only because I have a nearly flawless track record in investing last second and getting big gains from it, but I'm also worrying that this made me overconfident. Regardless, my intuitive percentage rn is closer to 40% than the current 26%; although your confidence in the other direction makes me moderately less confident of that. (unrelatedly: Woah new tips are so cool, and a great idea (I'd give a big tip to whoever came up with them))
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Bionic is betting YES at 26%
Hmm maybe I'm overconfident in the last-second ability of people, not sure. Like if this becomes a really massive market, even whales might not be able to make it go to 99% as they please? I have money, but not enough money to move the percentages around if people invest too much, here. So maybe like 35% that it hits a random number in between? Idk, I'm just flailing, here
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Adrian is betting NO at 26%
Interesting. I have limited and not particularly successful experience with last-minute betting, which is definitely skewing my answer.
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Adrian is betting NO at 26%
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Bionic is betting YES at 26%
@ahalekelly Windows & IOS. Not sure if I interpreted your question correctly.
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Adrian is betting NO at 26%
Ah I meant your strategy for last-second betting
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Bionic is betting YES at 30%
@ahalekelly Hmm... do you mind if I tell you after this market resolves? :D Not that I want to horde that info for myself, but this doesn't seem to my benefit at all here :P
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Adrian is betting NO at 30%
Haha of course
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Bionic is betting YES at 66%
@ahalekelly So now I can say. I don't have a fancy technique, to be honest. I heard that you use bots sometimes, but the only thing I do is to invest by hand in the last few seconds, and since the API works in ~2-4 seconds depending on markets per my experimentation, timing it at precisely 3-4 seconds before market close has never failed to work for me.
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Adrian is betting NO at 66%
@BionicD0LPH1N Huh. Yeah when I was trying to do it manually I was refreshing the page to get the latest info which I realized was a big mistake. And I wasn't sure how long the delay was. The bots are still very early days.
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Bionic is betting YES at 66%
@ahalekelly To get the percentages to update, just clicking on the graph tends to work for me. I used to just refresh quickly but that's just not possible to do while being competitive in terms of speed.
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Adrian is betting NO at 66%
@BionicD0LPH1N Huh, I didn't know clicking the graph caused an update.
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Bionic is betting YES at 66%
@ahalekelly I just have a vague memory of it working, and maybe I over-updated. I just created a market, can you go on there and we can make a few tests? I feel like understanding how markets work precisely is worth a lot of money in the long term.
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Does 1.2% count? What about 99.1%?
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Adrian bought M\$10 of NO
0.1%?
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@AdrianKelly "rounded to the nearest integer percentage" - so those would round to 1%, 99%, and 0% respectively (resolving NO, YES, and NO).
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Conflux bought M\$20 of YES
Last-whale, 50-50.
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Adrian bought M\$10 of NO
Actually no. If it's impossible to control because of multiple people betting at the last minute, then EV should be 33%. (eg if you use a "divides by 3 without increasing the amount of digits after the decimal point" rule) If you don't round decimal probabilities and anything with decimals resolves to No, then the market has a stable point and the market should go to No. A whale just needs to buy so much No that it can't go to 3%. If you do round decimal probabilities, and 0%-0.4% resolve to Yes and 0.5% - 1.4% resolve to yes, that's a 50-50 Last Whale market. Maybe 45%
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Adrian bought M\$20 of NO
Whoops I meant 0.5% - 2.4% resolve to No
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@AdrianKelly per the description, I will resolve 0% as NO. I'm curious if you're correct about it equilibrating at 0%. The counterargument is that any whale who tries to do that provides a massive incentive for another whale to buy it up to 3% at the last minute.
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Adrian is betting NO at 49%
Yeah sorry I missed the critical part of the description, and good point about the asymmetric costs. You guys are right it's basically a last whale market
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@AdrianKelly yeah that's my instinct, that it's a last whale market with expected value close to 33%. Which makes the current valuation interesting.
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Bionic bought M\$10 of YES
yeah, I missed that part too. I thought that a whale pushing in either direction would result in the YES win because 0 and 99 are both divisible by 3, but alas.
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Bionic is betting YES at 45%
I guess I'm losing money in expectation! Oopsie!
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Adrian bought M\$10 of NO
Hmm but if it's trading at 33% at the last minute, whales would make more profit pushing it to Yes than No
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Bionic is betting YES at 45%
True, good point. Maybe then 50% is a more natural balance point?
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@ahalekelly mmm, actually it occurs to me a whale can just push this straight to 0% fairly easily at the last minute. Would've been harder to manipulate if I'd included 0% in the range of YES answers. Lesson for next time, I suppose.
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Adrian is betting NO at 39%
Wait I thought zero is divisible by 3? 0 mod 3 = 0
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@ahalekelly it technically is, but per the original description of this market I'm not counting it as a valid answer (this time).
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(I think we've already had this conversation?)
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Adrian bought M\$200 of NO
Ah okay so it's scenario #2 from what I wrote above, not #3
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