Will the probability after close be evenly divisible by 3%?
14
14
118
resolved Jun 23
Resolved
YES
This question resolves to YES if the market probability after close, rounded to the nearest integer percentage, is divisible by 3%. For the purposes of this market, I will not count 0% as being divisible by 3%. I don't care if it's technically true. Consider yourself warned. Jun 15, 11:09am: and just as a clarification, I don't mean anything special by "evenly" divisible - the quotient need not be an even number or anything. Probabilities of 3%, 6%, 9%.... 96%, 99% all count. In the future I'll likely just leave "evenly" out of the title.
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Well done YES bettors!
bought Ṁ4 of YES
I expected some sort of last-minute speed battle @ahalekelly
predicted NO
@BionicD0LPH1N Oh shit I forgot :(
predicted NO
That hurts
predicted YES
@ahalekelly Oh damn :( happens to the best of us
bought Ṁ5 of YES
So what am I missing here? Why is the price so low??
bought Ṁ10 of YES
What I'm mostly asking is, why wouldn't someone moderately rich just put M$1200 at the last instant to put the price at 99%, and win lots of money? Even though I don't think this scenario is more likely than not, it doesn't feel like there's 6% chance it happens either?
bought Ṁ100 of NO
You would need to hit the 98.5 to 99.4% range which I think is too much uncertainty for someone to attempt
predicted YES
@ahalekelly I'm aware, but there are also 30 other ranges like that that could be hit. I feel like it wouldn't be very hard, for someone moderately rich and motivated, to invest last second and hit something divisible by 3; and that whenever the percentage of this market drops below 33%, this (not hypothetical) person is even more strongly incentivized to do so.
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Fair. I'm readjusting my price target from 5% to 15%
predicted NO
If you say there's a 60% chance it's zero, 10% chance it's 99, 30% chance it's a random number in between, that means it should be worth 19
bought Ṁ15 of YES
@ahalekelly I would give a 30% it hits 0 or 1, 35% it hits 99, 10% it hits 100, and 25% it hits something else, and about 50% of that 20% would be on words divisible by 3. This is almost only because I have a nearly flawless track record in investing last second and getting big gains from it, but I'm also worrying that this made me overconfident. Regardless, my intuitive percentage rn is closer to 40% than the current 26%; although your confidence in the other direction makes me moderately less confident of that. (unrelatedly: Woah new tips are so cool, and a great idea (I'd give a big tip to whoever came up with them))
predicted YES
Hmm maybe I'm overconfident in the last-second ability of people, not sure. Like if this becomes a really massive market, even whales might not be able to make it go to 99% as they please? I have money, but not enough money to move the percentages around if people invest too much, here. So maybe like 35% that it hits a random number in between? Idk, I'm just flailing, here
predicted NO
Interesting. I have limited and not particularly successful experience with last-minute betting, which is definitely skewing my answer.
predicted NO
What's your system?
predicted YES
@ahalekelly Windows & IOS. Not sure if I interpreted your question correctly.
predicted NO
Ah I meant your strategy for last-second betting
predicted YES
@ahalekelly Hmm... do you mind if I tell you after this market resolves? :D Not that I want to horde that info for myself, but this doesn't seem to my benefit at all here :P
predicted NO
Haha of course
predicted YES
@ahalekelly So now I can say. I don't have a fancy technique, to be honest. I heard that you use bots sometimes, but the only thing I do is to invest by hand in the last few seconds, and since the API works in ~2-4 seconds depending on markets per my experimentation, timing it at precisely 3-4 seconds before market close has never failed to work for me.
predicted NO
@BionicD0LPH1N Huh. Yeah when I was trying to do it manually I was refreshing the page to get the latest info which I realized was a big mistake. And I wasn't sure how long the delay was. The bots are still very early days.
predicted YES
@ahalekelly To get the percentages to update, just clicking on the graph tends to work for me. I used to just refresh quickly but that's just not possible to do while being competitive in terms of speed.
predicted NO
@BionicD0LPH1N Huh, I didn't know clicking the graph caused an update.
predicted YES
@ahalekelly I just have a vague memory of it working, and maybe I over-updated. I just created a market, can you go on there and we can make a few tests? I feel like understanding how markets work precisely is worth a lot of money in the long term.
Does 1.2% count? What about 99.1%?
bought Ṁ10 of NO
0.1%?
@AdrianKelly "rounded to the nearest integer percentage" - so those would round to 1%, 99%, and 0% respectively (resolving NO, YES, and NO).