I've been playing in a PbP RPG campaign for just over a year now. In that time we've played B/X, SWN, and now (for a while) 4e D&D. In that time, I have lost a character in the B/X game (unlucky ambush roll + lvl 1 character = instant death), and then just recently I lost my character in the 4e campaign as he held off an encounter we shouldn't have attempted to fight in the first place while the rest of the party got away. No one else has lost any characters in the time I've been playing in this server.

Will I complete the hat trick before anyone else loses a character? (and to clarify, by "lose" I mean the character dies or is in some other way permanently taken out of action - not that we switch systems or I get bored with a character or anything like that)

Some details:
* I am playing a Defender class with the new character (swordmage), so it is generally my character's job to take the hits for the party

* That said, my new character is dispositionally a bit less heroic and self-sacrificing than the last one (wandering scholar vs noble paladin), so she's less likely to do that sort of doomed retreat thing than the last one

* I am not playing to lose my character intentionally

* I am playing to the best of my ability

I will extend the market close date until another player character in this server dies. Market resolves YES if my character is the next to die, and NO if my character is not the next to die. PCs only, NPCs don't count.

Creator betting policy: I'll bet on the market just after creation to set my initial a priori probability as of today, and then I will not bet any further on the market.