(Edit: 2023-01-16) Don't just predict this one, please check out the other 12 travel predictions! Thanks! https://manifold.markets/group/scotts-cheap-flights-going-2023-pre

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With China—the last major country with covid travel restrictions—poised to reopen on January 8, I’m anticipating a huge uptick in transpacific flights (which are currently down 50% compared to 2019). More competition = cheaper fares. The average cheap flight to Asia soared to $775 in 2022; it’ll fall this year.

(90% confidence)

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This is question #2 from Scott Keyes' annual travel predictions at Scott's Cheap Flights (now Going).

Since Scott resolved and graded his 2022 predictions before the end of 2022, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of the year, to (try to) avoid a situation where he posts the resolutions before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2024, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2024, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside (non-Going) source data.