Will I receive a managram of exactly 1434 mana by EOY 2024?
ManaWhale Watching
Mini
31
Ṁ17k
resolved Jun 6
Resolved
YES

EOY 2024 means the end of the year in 2024, aka 11:59 PM 12/31/2024 (I'll use PT for convenience).

Anyone can bet on (furthermore, is encouraged to!) bet on this market.

If you send the 1434 mana managram, I will NOT return you your mana.

This will resolve YES (immediately) if/when I get the managram, otherwise, I'll resolve it to NO after the deadline ends.

(I'm mostly just creating this market as an experiment to see what will happen :P)

Get Ṁ600 play money

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bought Ṁ250 YES

welp i just sent @Math4Life2020 1434 mana

bought Ṁ680 YES

@Qoiuoiuoiu he bet 3500 on NO...

@Qoiuoiuoiu We did it Joe

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@Qoiuoiuoiu I thought managrams didn't exist anymore, how did you do it?

@PlasmaBallin They have not gone away, and I believe the current policy is that they won't until prize point payouts are enabled

sold Ṁ63 YES

Oh huh, I guess my understanding of betting/liquidity math is fundamentally off. I thought more NO bets would increase the max possible YES payout, but instead it seems to lower it?! It returns less mana now to swing it to 99% than it did before the last 1000 NO was bet, so I have no idea how this site works goodbye

I haven't done the math, but it seems like this should turn out as a YES from the game theory of it...

@JamesBaker3 Oh, although I suppose managrams going away is the wild card...

bought Ṁ50 NO

Well since managrams aren't gonna be a thing after like may 15 i guess this is gonna be a no

That is an oddly specific number. Did you do a break even calculation of the payout from maximally betting YES versus how much somebody would lose by gifting you that much?

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