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@MartyDettmann

This market resolves to the calibration grade of @AMANABOT at market close June 30, 2024. If the grade is leaning towards another grade, I will resolve 20% to that grade. For example, "A-" resolves to 80% A, 20% B.

It's past June 30th, and the listed grade is a C+. so IIUC, this resolves to 80% C, 20% B?

You are correct about the % but I won't resolve until the listed closing time. The market was created April 5 so 'in three months' is July 5.

I was considering resolving early when AMANABOT died due to the pivot since it wasn't going to make any more trades and therefore the calibration should be locked in, I just didn't want to bother with getting confirmation from manifold that the calibration definitely couldn't change if the bot wasn't holding any open positions and confirmation from the bot's creater that the bot would for sure not enter into any new positions. So I decided I was going to leave it up until the closing date that was originally posted.

Oh totally fair you may just want to update the description then:

June 30, 2024.

(usually I assume description is more official than the listed close time but totally fair to switch to listed close date)

Oh, I don't know how that got in there, sorry about that. The market details say creation time April 5, the most likely explanation would seem to be that I wrote the description for the market and then didn't actually create the market until a few days later.

We're about three weeks in and AMANABOT's calibration score has improved dramatically, sitting at -7.29, Grade C- at the time of this comment.

One could easily buy F and then manipulate the calibration to F if necessary.

@HarrisonNathan I suppose manipulation is a concern in this market as long as the number of users the bot has is low.

@MartyDettmann Even if it's fairly high, calibration is easy to screw up with a large number of small trades.

@HarrisonNathan I don't know how the calibration score works tbh, is it not weighted by amount of mana bet?