Resolves yes if someone can convert mana into dollar donations to a US political action committee or 501(c)(4) or similar Republican political group. Resolves no otherwise.
Small print: I will buy in this market once to set the initial probability. After that I will only sell. I will use my judgment in deciding whether a group is "Republican", but for example I would count the NRA, a 501(c)(4) that mostly supports Republican candidates. This market resolves yes if political donations are restricted to US residents.
1,000
3.00@MartinRandall Just now seeing this! Twas a longshot M$1 bet by my bot so I don't care much, but regardless, looking at the available charities, resolving "NO" was the right move. Nothing on the list screams "Republican" in the way that the NRA might.
@MartinRandall To clarify, if this were about Democrats instead, would it already resolve YES, and if so, what orgs on https://manifold.markets/charity would make it do so? Specifically I'd appreciate hearing the least obvious such org, i.e. the one that is least affiliated with Democrats while still being sufficient for a YES.
@BenjaminCosman Based on my knowledge of those charities, with some brief research, it would not resolve yes.
I was aware of claims that the ACLU is now a partisan organization, but this is disputed, they still claim to be non-partisan, and they don't appear to endorse candidates. I'm open to being corrected on that. They seem very close, with a 501c4 arm and an inherently political objective.
None of the other charities struck me as meeting the counterfactual criteria. Again, open to being educated on this.
@MartinRandall Partisan/nonpartisan is of course a spectrum rather than a binary; the ACLU is indeed the listed org that I'd put farthest towards the partisan side but whether it's across the ultimate binary threshold for this market is entirely up to you. My goal isn't to fight with you over where the threshold should be (definitions arguments are dumb); I just want to understand where yours is so as to inform my bets :)
I did out of curiosity go look at what the NRA actually does politically. If you look at https://www.nrapvf.org/grades/, you'll see that they basically claim to be nonpartisan: they "rank political candidates — irrespective of party affiliation". And their endorsements are entirely issues based: when they tell you to vote for A over B, they don't mention anywhere that A is a Republican; instead they give you all the reasons A is good for more guns and B is bad for more guns. And yet of course this process winds up endorsing almost (or perhaps entirely?) 100% Republicans, which means it's pretty reasonable to consider that in actual effect NRA is a partisan org. Similarly, while the ACLU doesn't explicitly endorse candidates, they are definitely willing to call out individual candidates for things that they think are good or bad according to their set of issues (e.g. see the mentions of Grassley here: https://www.aclu.org/news/civil-liberties/how-the-aclu-is-flexing-its-political-muscle-in-the-2020-elections). And though this doesn't lean 100% Democrat, my guess is in actual effect it'd be pretty close to a Democrat partisan org based on e.g. this donation request from them:
(and if the "Abortion...vote" part had said, idk, "An unborn child's right to life, people's right to work, people's right to a secure election", I'd be calling the same ad in actual effect probably a Republican org). This is not meant to be a values judgement for/against any of these orgs! Only that given how strongly certain issues stances align with certain parties, being an issues-only org and being a partisan org might be almost identical sometimes.
@BenjaminCosman Thanks! I find the equivalent ACLU score card, which does list affiliations, so I should be able to compare partisan lean in endorsements with the NRA. I think that should be reasonably objective.
https://www.aclu.org/scorecard/
Most of the other charities listed I thought might have a strong partisan lean on who donates to them but didn't seem to be actively be political in the same way as the ACLU or NRA.
@Tetraspace no, only 501(c)(3)s, and when asked about charity support they've said they'd consider adding any 501(c)(3).