Will LessWrong change their Petrov Day 2022 plan and reduce the chance of the button being pressed?
resolved Sep 29


Resolves Yes if the big red button is implemented differently in 2022 than described here and the difference decreases the chance of the button being pressed.

Resolves No if the original plan goes ahead. You only live once.

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This confirms that the original plan went ahead, and the only changes were to address discrepancies between the code and the original plan. Resolves NO.

I'm pretty sure this resolves NO but I'll wait for the retrospective post just in case.

sold Ṁ1 of YES

I also rule that messing up the code that stopped users opting out wasn't a change in the plan. Also I'm pretty sure this increased the chances of the button being pressed. We've learned from prior years that users don't like not being able to opt out of these shenanigans.

predicted YES

Instead they changed it to allow zero karma users to press it. But I rule that this wasn't a change to the plan, nor was reversing the change.

Though I bet it did decrease the chance of the button being pushed, it seems like at least one person changed their button-pushing plan after being confronted by the destroyed home page early in the day.

This market is a live updating view on how bad I am at persuasion.

predicted NO

@MartinRandall I don't think you are actually getting worse at persuasion.

@Yev Then bet yes!

predicted NO

@MartinRandall I think you are as (un)persuasive as you were yesterday. The reason the market is going down is that there is less time for them to change the rules.

@Yev Oh, that's fair. But I wouldn't expect them to announce the final rules until Monday anyway, there's not enough time for three iterations of feedback.