https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26
Resolves Yes if the big red button is implemented differently in 2022 than described here and the difference decreases the chance of the button being pressed.
Resolves No if the original plan goes ahead. You only live once.
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ytuLbHbdQweAwGk9L/petrov-day-retrospective-2022
This confirms that the original plan went ahead, and the only changes were to address discrepancies between the code and the original plan. Resolves NO.
I also rule that messing up the code that stopped users opting out wasn't a change in the plan. Also I'm pretty sure this increased the chances of the button being pressed. We've learned from prior years that users don't like not being able to opt out of these shenanigans.
Instead they changed it to allow zero karma users to press it. But I rule that this wasn't a change to the plan, nor was reversing the change.
Though I bet it did decrease the chance of the button being pushed, it seems like at least one person changed their button-pushing plan after being confronted by the destroyed home page early in the day.
@MartinRandall I think you are as (un)persuasive as you were yesterday. The reason the market is going down is that there is less time for them to change the rules.