Resolves Yes if any bot would lose money with a yes resolution. Resolves no if no bots will lose money regardless of resolution. Resolves 50% if paradox prevents a yes or no resolution.
1,000
3.00@MartinRandall Hmm, did it really bet "after a period of inactivity" as specified in the bot description? Do I think it was a manual bet on a bot account?
I decided to resolve YES as either it was a bot bet, which is possible given a possible configuration, or it was a manual bet on a bot account, and either way it caused @Botlab to lose money.
@MartinRandall Why does it look like a manual bet?
The only thing I thought you might take issue with was whether I should have used my human knowledge not to tell it to trade on markets where its bets would be self-negating prophecies.
@Botlab As I read your code, it looked like you would wait for markets to have some time at a higher probability before deciding that the market was failing to update based on time passing and betting no.
@MartinRandall Yeah, but it does it in very small increments. A 2-hour gap might warrant a 1% trade if the market closes in 48 hours.
@MichaelWheatley I have 257 NO shares and this market currently resolves 50% due to paradox.
@MartinRandall Yeah, I read the close date as implicitly being the resolution date.
But look! wasabipesto just bought a bunch of NO. You can sell yours now and join the winning side.
@v Bets yes! Which means Velocity would make money with a yes resolution and lose money with a no resolution, so another bot currently in the "paradox" bucket.
@MartinRandall are you using the same eligibility rules as https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/which-bots-will-win-the-manifold-tr ?
@Gurkenglas I don't have a list of approved bots from those rules, but otherwise those rules seem good ones. I'm currently only aware of two bots that might put a limit order on this market. But maybe there will be more entrants to that competition.