Resolves Yes if any bot would lose money with a yes resolution. Resolves no if no bots will lose money regardless of resolution. Resolves 50% if paradox prevents a yes or no resolution.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ648 | |
2 | Ṁ96 | |
3 | Ṁ67 | |
4 | Ṁ23 | |
5 | Ṁ17 |
It looks like this resolves YES, but I'll wait till close in 17 hours in case anyone has an objection to that.
@MartinRandall Hmm, did it really bet "after a period of inactivity" as specified in the bot description? Do I think it was a manual bet on a bot account?
@MartinRandall Why does it look like a manual bet?
The only thing I thought you might take issue with was whether I should have used my human knowledge not to tell it to trade on markets where its bets would be self-negating prophecies.
@MartinRandall Yeah, but it does it in very small increments. A 2-hour gap might warrant a 1% trade if the market closes in 48 hours.
I'm currently being incentivized to close this market early, and I'm not sure that YES bettors with insider information are factoring that in.
@MichaelWheatley I have 257 NO shares and this market currently resolves 50% due to paradox.
@MartinRandall Yeah, I read the close date as implicitly being the resolution date.
But look! wasabipesto just bought a bunch of NO. You can sell yours now and join the winning side.
So far it looks like ryanbot is going to be a big winner. Did the other bots add an exception for markets with " bot" in the name?
@MartinRandall are you using the same eligibility rules as https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/which-bots-will-win-the-manifold-tr ?
@Gurkenglas I don't have a list of approved bots from those rules, but otherwise those rules seem good ones. I'm currently only aware of two bots that might put a limit order on this market. But maybe there will be more entrants to that competition.