Will any bots lose money on this market?
Basic
17
Ṁ6065
resolved Sep 12
Resolved
YES

Resolves Yes if any bot would lose money with a yes resolution. Resolves no if no bots will lose money regardless of resolution. Resolves 50% if paradox prevents a yes or no resolution.

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2y

It looks like this resolves YES, but I'll wait till close in 17 hours in case anyone has an objection to that.

2y

@MartinRandall Hmm, did it really bet "after a period of inactivity" as specified in the bot description? Do I think it was a manual bet on a bot account?

2y

I decided to resolve YES as either it was a bot bet, which is possible given a possible configuration, or it was a manual bet on a bot account, and either way it caused @Botlab to lose money.

predictedNO 2y

@MartinRandall Why does it look like a manual bet?

The only thing I thought you might take issue with was whether I should have used my human knowledge not to tell it to trade on markets where its bets would be self-negating prophecies.

2y

@Botlab As I read your code, it looked like you would wait for markets to have some time at a higher probability before deciding that the market was failing to update based on time passing and betting no.

predictedYES 2y

@MartinRandall Yeah, but it does it in very small increments. A 2-hour gap might warrant a 1% trade if the market closes in 48 hours.

2y
predictedNO 2y

I'm currently being incentivized to close this market early, and I'm not sure that YES bettors with insider information are factoring that in.

predictedYES 2y

@MartinRandall What's the incentive?

predictedNO 2y

@MichaelWheatley I have 257 NO shares and this market currently resolves 50% due to paradox.

predictedYES 2y

@MartinRandall Yeah, I read the close date as implicitly being the resolution date.
But look! wasabipesto just bought a bunch of NO. You can sell yours now and join the winning side.

predictedNO 2y
predictedNO 2y

@v Bets yes! Which means Velocity would make money with a yes resolution and lose money with a no resolution, so another bot currently in the "paradox" bucket.

2y

So far it looks like ryanbot is going to be a big winner. Did the other bots add an exception for markets with " bot" in the name?

2y

@MartinRandall are you using the same eligibility rules as https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/which-bots-will-win-the-manifold-tr ?

predictedNO 2y

@Gurkenglas I don't have a list of approved bots from those rules, but otherwise those rules seem good ones. I'm currently only aware of two bots that might put a limit order on this market. But maybe there will be more entrants to that competition.

2y

(A bit too easy to move?)

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