Which month will this market resolve in?
23
closes Sep 29
August 2023
0.8%
September 2023
11%
October 2023
9%
November 2023
8%
December 2023
7%
January 2024
7%
February 2024
6%
March 2024
5%
April 2024
5%
May 2024
5%
Other
37%

This market has a 10% chance of resolving at the end of each month. It closes two days before the end of the month to give me time to resolve it. If it does not resolve it will be reopened for trading till the next month.

Details:

  • I will use @FairlyRandom to get the 10%, assuming that it works.

  • If I miss the end of the month, the market resolves (or not) based on what should have happened. This basically covers sickness, death, etc.

  • I will add new months as needed to maintain 9 months + Other.

  • I may bet on this market.

  • The market was briefly marked "non-predictive" (not by me), and as of this update is not so marked. I won't mark it non-predictive myself.

Rationale: this market is an experiment to test the impact of leagues, loans, and discount rates on market probabilities.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Sort by:
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

This was pretty non-distorted for August. Will it stay that way?

FairlyRandom avatar
FairlyRandomBot 🤖

@MartinRandall your random number is: 2

Salt: y0A3a9iBEyootog1XHa5, round: 3268389 (signature 9299e98a61f98001f37548bf7b8ea7f074f7e895e1f481ecf3735413cda70991b39c28faaadcb300d67905e7d30a2ea8098f901250b89026cb7bb28e42a39d6c8b45f0f5fc0a89458b44fbcf3975b1b2537c0a8d50e7dc10ffc81f473d6b0353)

FairlyRandom avatar
FairlyRandomBot 🤖

@MartinRandall you asked for a random integer between 1 and 10, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 3268387 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 3268389, salt: y0A3a9iBEyootog1XHa5.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

Ten resolves

@FairlyRandom 10

FairlyRandom avatar
FairlyRandomBot 🤖

Not a valid request: Range is ambiguous. Please include only a single number, or explicitly state max=N

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

10 resolves

@FairlyRandom 10

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ0 of August 2023 NO

Added some limit orders for this month

A avatar
A

Remember to add the market to the #FairlyRandom group so the bot can find it.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ1 of Other YES

My attempt to measure league distortion didn't work when the market was automatically excluded from leagues. Maybe an admin will make a duplicate of this market that is included in leagues so we can get a result there.

1 reply
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

And it's now included again. Sorry for the thrash, bettors.

Floris van Doornbought Ṁ49 ofOther YES
Joshua avatar
Joshua

I'm learning so many market dynamics

Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ1 of September 2023 YES

This is a genius idea.