This market has a 10% chance of resolving at the end of each month. It closes two days before the end of the month to give me time to resolve it. If it does not resolve it will be reopened for trading till the next month.
Details:
I will use @FairlyRandom to get the 10%, assuming that it works.
If I miss the end of the month, the market resolves (or not) based on what should have happened. This basically covers sickness, death, etc.
I will add new months as needed to maintain 9 months + Other.
I may bet on this market.
The market was briefly marked "non-predictive" (not by me), and as of this update is not so marked. I won't mark it non-predictive myself.
Rationale: this market is an experiment to test the impact of leagues, loans, and discount rates on market probabilities.
Related questions
@MartinRandall your random number is: 2
Salt: y0A3a9iBEyootog1XHa5, round: 3268389 (signature 9299e98a61f98001f37548bf7b8ea7f074f7e895e1f481ecf3735413cda70991b39c28faaadcb300d67905e7d30a2ea8098f901250b89026cb7bb28e42a39d6c8b45f0f5fc0a89458b44fbcf3975b1b2537c0a8d50e7dc10ffc81f473d6b0353)
@MartinRandall you asked for a random integer between 1 and 10, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 3268387 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 3268389, salt: y0A3a9iBEyootog1XHa5.
Not a valid request: Range is ambiguous. Please include only a single number, or explicitly state max=N
My attempt to measure league distortion didn't work when the market was automatically excluded from leagues. Maybe an admin will make a duplicate of this market that is included in leagues so we can get a result there.
