This market has a 10% chance of resolving at the end of each month. It closes two days before the end of the month to give me time to resolve it. If it does not resolve it will be reopened for trading till the next month.

Details:

• I will use @FairlyRandom to get the 10%, assuming that it works.

• If I miss the end of the month, the market resolves (or not) based on what should have happened. This basically covers sickness, death, etc.

• I will add new months as needed to maintain 9 months + Other.

• I may bet on this market.

• The market was briefly marked "non-predictive" (not by me), and as of this update is not so marked. I won't mark it non-predictive myself.

Rationale: this market is an experiment to test the impact of leagues, loans, and discount rates on market probabilities.