Which month will this market resolve in?
63
1.2K
3.2K
resolved Jan 31
100%98%
January 2024
0.0%
August 2023
0.0%
September 2023
0.0%
October 2023
0.0%
November 2023
0.0%
December 2023
0.1%
February 2024
0.1%
March 2024
0.1%
April 2024
0.1%
May 2024
0.0%
June 2024
0.0%
July 2024
1.9%Other

This market has a 10% chance of resolving at the end of each month. It closes two days before the end of the month to give me time to resolve it. If it does not resolve it will be reopened for trading till the next month.

Details:

  • I will use @FairlyRandom to get the 10%, assuming that it works.

  • If I miss the end of the month, the market resolves (or not) based on what should have happened. This basically covers sickness, death, etc.

  • I will add new months as needed to maintain 9 months + Other.

  • I may bet on this market.

  • The market was briefly marked "non-predictive" (not by me), and as of this update is not so marked. I won't mark it non-predictive myself.

Rationale: this market is an experiment to test the impact of leagues, loans, and discount rates on market probabilities.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ2,946
2Ṁ135
3Ṁ105
4Ṁ43
5Ṁ40
Sort by:

My conclusions.

  1. Manifold should not subsidize this type of thing.

  2. It ended up not being ranked, league impact should be zero.

  3. Lack of ability to early resolve no is annoying.

  4. Minimal distortion from discount rates, seems like distortion from discount rates mostly applies to longer term markets and cases where there is more dumb money.

@MartinRandall You blatantly violated the market description by reopening the market after knowing it would resolve yes. Please reimburse filling my NO limit order. (edit: I think more generally it's not good for market creators to bet just before resolving, but here it's especially bad since it violates the market description).

@FlorisvanDoorn Can you quote the part of the description that is violated (in any case I agree that if u left some limit orders that sucks)

@Bayesian I disagree with the premise of your question. When giving a list of rules, it is generally assumed that you don't do things that fall well outside the rules. In this case, the rules were pretty clear what should happen: a coinflip happens when the market it closed to decide how to resolve that month. It says specifically "If it does not resolve it will be reopened for trading till the next month." so it shouldn't re-open if it resolves yes. I know this is not a mathematically valid conclusion from the statement as given, but that is how language works.

If you don't agree, let's consider the following scenario. Suppose Martin Randall added an option "Haha, fooled you" and resolved that YES. Would you agree that violated the market description? It doesn't violate any written rule.

Or maybe the creator of Dominion can say it better than I can: https://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=876.msg13546#msg13546

@FlorisvanDoorn yeah ok I wasn't sure if that's the part you were referring to, didn't mean to imply you were in the wrong for interpreting the description as implying that it wouldn't be reopened if the market was to resolve in that month. I agree it isn't a mathematically valid conclusion like you said, but that it was implied (in speech "if A I'll do B" usually implies "if not A then I'll do not B"). I don't think the scenario you brought up is really equivalent, and in that sense I'm 95% sure mods would intervene in that scenario but only around 30% in this one. I still think it would be fair that you get reimbursed

@FlorisvanDoorn I specifically said I would bet in the market in the description. I recommend in the future that you put an expiration time on limit orders in this type of market.

In terms of reimbursement I see an Aug 12 limit order for m100 but I can't see when that was filled. Probably today?

It feels like a bug that limit orders stay active after a market has closed.

@FlorisvanDoorn reimbursed you m100

@MartinRandall Yes, that was today. Thanks.

@MartinRandall As a neutral observer with no stake in this market: To me, "I may bet on this market" implies participating in it like any other trader, not reopening it just for your own bet and then immediately closing it again.

@A Thanks for the feedback. Would it be better if I reopened to bet and didn't immediately close it?

@MartinRandall I think probably it just shouldn't have been reopened for betting after the resolution criteria was met. The description seemed to imply that was what would happen, otherwise what is the point of closing it two days before the end of each month? "It closes two days before the end of the month to give me time to resolve it. If it does not resolve it will be reopened for trading till the next month."

It finally happened! The scoreboard won't load yet, how did someone profit so much? That's wild

@Joshua My guess:

@NcyRocks Don't forget being first to bet NO all previous months.

@FlorisvanDoorn yes I got m400 in prior months.

🤖

@MartinRandall your random number is: 10

Salt: 0TZtXYVfaCoRenfRu6El, round: 3710309 (signature 87e03c11fc28dc67ca3b71570628cb5a2a76203bf34e2a77279e70159b6d938a7c8d541c055a4c401a9b7e6346835e3c09877ac3edba01d4dc3ffe88bac0379fb5153df396fe53e71158c3bad1a4bdb7f3bf66b50c7e45fb2d0deda2208a6ae7)

🤖

@MartinRandall you asked for a random integer between 1 and 10, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 3710307 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 3710309, salt: 0TZtXYVfaCoRenfRu6El.

Ten resolves for January

@FairlyRandom 10

🤖

@MartinRandall your random number is: 3

Salt: 29kcNawF6MbtdbCaTQC7, round: 3650148 (signature a8ede98f1e51867391982d49d1156f4a6ab02ecf5f2ba43eec825dac12f8ef3ac951483b9f40d92db7f8c69832c2caf819741ba82a66da868d518d56ccacc4d1d6a71db60c546617c21a47b571899b5fe9b7850a4c7a52d08a1a8653a2ed5be1)

🤖

@MartinRandall you asked for a random integer between 1 and 10, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 3650146 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 3650148, salt: 29kcNawF6MbtdbCaTQC7.

Ten resolves for December

@FairlyRandom 10

@MartinRandall I think this needs a new die roll for the end of December?

@EvanDaniel yeah I was out of the country and then got behind