Will the 2023 peak blossom of cherry trees in Kyoto happen earlier than ever? (peak before March 26th)
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resolved Jun 5
Resolved
YES

There is a competition to predict date of cherry blossoms across the world:

https://competition.statistics.gmu.edu/ so lets do a Manifold attempt.

Market will resolve the date using the same technique as the competition: The peak bloom date of the Prunus jamasakura is determined by a local news paper in Arashiyama (Kyoto, JP).

The last few peak blossom dates are: 2019-04-05, 2020-04-01, 2021-03-26 (this was the earliest ever), 2022-04-01

A plot of the historical data is at https://www.datagraver.com/case/kyoto-cherry-blossom-full-flower-dates and the full historical data series is available at https://github.com/GMU-CherryBlossomCompetition/peak-bloom-prediction/blob/main/data/kyoto.csv

Feb 1, 11:28am: Will cherry trees in Kyoto blossom in 2023 sooner than ever? (peak before March 26th) → Will the 2023 peak blossom of cherry trees in Kyoto happen earlier than ever? (peak before March 26th)

Related (different threshold date)

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predicted NO

So according to the competition website, https://competition.statistics.gmu.edu/ "The actual date was March 25th." (for Kyoto) So this resolves YES.

predicted NO

Any news ?

predicted NO

@Odoacre Sorry for taking so long. I've found it impossible to find the

predicted NO

@MartinModrak exact source used by the competition. I've found one post on Mastodon claiming it was 29th. Waiting for competition results (which should come out soon).

predicted NO

I cannot resolve at this time - it appears to have been a close call, some sources reporting full bloom happened before 26th (e.g. https://www.japan-guide.com/blog/sakura23/230325_kyoto.html, https://tenki.jp/sakura/expectation/). But I so far failed to find an unequivocal summary. I'll try to dig in into translated Japanese source in the upcoming days, but if that doesn't bring clarity I might also need to wait for official statement from the competition runners. If somebody has good sources to verify either way, I'd be happy to see it/

predicted NO
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