There is a competition to predict date of cherry blossoms across the world:

https://competition.statistics.gmu.edu/ so lets do a Manifold attempt.

Market will resolve the date using the same technique as the competition: The peak bloom date of the Prunus jamasakura is determined by a local news paper in Arashiyama (Kyoto, JP).

The last few peak blossom dates are: 2019-04-05, 2020-04-01, 2021-03-26 (this was the earliest ever), 2022-04-01

A plot of the historical data is at https://www.datagraver.com/case/kyoto-cherry-blossom-full-flower-dates and the full historical data series is available at https://github.com/GMU-CherryBlossomCompetition/peak-bloom-prediction/blob/main/data/kyoto.csv

Feb 1, 11:28am: Will cherry trees in Kyoto blossom in 2023 sooner than ever? (peak before March 26th) → Will the 2023 peak blossom of cherry trees in Kyoto happen earlier than ever? (peak before March 26th)

Related (different threshold date)