There is a competition to predict date of cherry blossoms across the world:
https://competition.statistics.gmu.edu/ so lets do a Manifold attempt.
Market will resolve the date using the same technique as the competition: The peak bloom date of the Prunus jamasakura is determined by a local news paper in Arashiyama (Kyoto, JP). Will resolve YES if peak blossom is April 4th or earlier, otherwise will resolve NO.
The last few peak blossom dates are: 2019-04-05, 2020-04-01, 2021-03-26 (this was the earliest ever), 2022-04-01
A plot of the historical data is at https://www.datagraver.com/case/kyoto-cherry-blossom-full-flower-dates and the full historical data series is available at https://github.com/GMU-CherryBlossomCompetition/peak-bloom-prediction/blob/main/data/kyoto.csv
Related market with earlier prediction date
π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ18 | |
| 2 | αΉ11 | |
| 3 | αΉ7 | |
| 4 | αΉ6 | |
| 5 | αΉ6 |
Clear reports of full bloom already happening in Kyoto from multiple sources - there might be some discussion on the exact date, but this can safely resolve "YES" https://tenki.jp/sakura/expectation/
Some cherries seem to be blossoming already https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iTMwUDbAgpg&feature=youtu.be&cbrd=1