When will a volcanic eruption start in the Reykjanes peninsula, Iceland (Part 2)
11
400Ṁ5328resolved Dec 11
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%99.7%
No eruption before Dec 10th
0.1%
Nov 25th or earlier
0.2%
Nov 26th - Dec 2nd
0.1%
Dec 3rd - Dec 9th
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67387827
Based on official statements of Icelandic authorities/vulcanology society, most notably https://en.vedur.is/ (whichever provides enough detail, if the resolution hinges on exact timing)
Iceland local time determines date. Will resolve to the last option immediately if no eruption is observed by Dec 10th.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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"The likelihood of a volcanic eruption over the magma intrusion has significantly decreased"
https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night
With no update on that, I think we can take that as meaning there hasn't been an eruption on 9th or earlier.
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