Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before the 2025 Dutch general election, the GroenLinks–PvdA (GL/PvdA) alliance publicly announces that they will categorically exclude the possibility of forming a government coalition with the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). The announcement must be made through official party channels, such as press releases, official statements, or declarations by the party leader. If no such announcement is made by the time of the election, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

The GroenLinks–PvdA alliance is a political collaboration between the GreenLeft (GroenLinks) and the Labour Party (PvdA) in the Netherlands. This alliance was formed to consolidate left-wing efforts and increase their influence in Dutch politics. The People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is a center-right political party that has been a significant player in Dutch politics, often advocating for liberal economic policies and individual freedoms.

In previous elections, the GL/PvdA alliance has expressed reservations about forming coalitions with right-leaning parties, including the VVD. For instance, during the 2023 Dutch general election, GL/PvdA leader Frans Timmermans ruled out working with the PVV, stating, "we will never form a coalition with parties that pretend that asylum seekers are the source of all misery" (en.wikipedia.org). However, specific statements regarding the VVD have been less definitive.

Considerations

• Political Dynamics: The Dutch political landscape is known for its multiparty system, often requiring coalition governments. The GL/PvdA's decision to exclude or include the VVD in potential coalition talks may be influenced by the outcomes of the election and the distribution of seats among parties.

• Historical Context: Historically, the GL and PvdA have had varying stances on collaborating with the VVD. While there have been instances of cooperation, ideological differences, especially on social and economic policies, have often been points of contention.

• Public Statements: The resolution of this market hinges on official public statements made by the GL/PvdA alliance. It's essential to monitor credible news sources and official party communications for any declarations regarding coalition preferences leading up to the 2025 elections.