It is, in fact, up. by about 3 or so points, no less. This resolves yes. And furthermore, lmao

@Marnix Im stunned.

@ScipioFabius to be fair, the "one week later" deadline assumed it would be a week and not a decade

willing to bet on the memory hole and assume that this is essentially a 50/50 chance

@PaperBoy My thinking is that it may poll well with the already-pretty-anti-biden "overprotective parent" demographic but only time will tell

@Marnix memory hole is undefeated lol

Ah, crap. I just realized I never specified a time period for this.

What time period should we see if it goes up after? Or should it just be by end of term?

@Marnix my gut feel says end of term, but I'm afraid that end of term rating could be influenced by many other factors, such as statements from the incoming administration, that could influence the approval of the outgoing. I'm not sure how long does it take for approval ratings to react to new events, 2 weeks?

@ScipioFabius Yeah, typically things show up after a week or two. 2 weeks sounds safe to me, unless there's any objections

@Marnix Actually, I'm going to make it 1 week. Looking at Trump's term, the approval shift he had from Jan. 6th happened literally two days later. I forgot that 538 operates on a slight delay, and I think 2 weeks might be long enough that it might bounce back up/down. They're currently at last Wednesday, so I'm going to resolve this based on the first update they have after Jan. 9th, unless anyone has any objections!

@Marnix Presumably you meant December 9th? In that case this resolves YES

@Bayesian Huh. Yeah, that's an unfortunate typo. Whoops!