50+ killed in international waters during Trump's "War on Drug Cartels"?
17
600Ṁ6053
resolved Oct 28
Resolved
YES
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-strikes-boat-off-venezuela-amid-questions-over-action-against-drug-gangs-6a8c83aa?mod=hp_lead_pos3 up to 21 now
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/us/politics/trump-drugs-boat-attack.html?smid=url-share 27 now
@Marnix Latest strikes killed 14, meaning the lowest number is 57. Unambiguously resolves YES.

Trump has recently declared war on "drug cartels," escalating what began as a series of extrajudicial airstrikes on Venezuelan boats in international waters. So far, at least 4 vessels have been sunk, with at least 17 people confirmed killed. Will that number be estimated (or confirmed, if estimates are not available) to be at least 50 in the next 6 months?

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@Marnix Article actually claims 43, although idk whether that's just a typo, I do know there were a couple other strikes, and the strike from earlier was at least 2 dead.

@Balasar Forbes is saying 46.

@Marnix lol that's unfortunate. fortunately (???) my guess is that there will not be too much ambiguity here about whether we reach the 50 person mark given the superlinear trend line.

@Balasar Yeah, I think we may see an unambiguous resolution fairly soon

@Marnix Latest strikes killed 14, meaning the lowest number is 57. Unambiguously resolves YES.

@Balasar There was another one before with an unknown number, too. probably won't get any numbers out of it

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