No AI startup will ever go public
11
52
210
resolved Feb 8
Resolved
YES

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ37
2Ṁ22
3Ṁ4
4Ṁ1
5Ṁ1
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 of YES

AI businesses don't make any sense as public companies. Maybe OpenAI with the GPT hype could sell enough 1.5m/year dedicated boxes to be a tiny one, but they're going to get bought by Microsoft before that happens. Plus doing that puts revenue on them, kills the hype, and IV collapse would make all their important employees quit.

Anyone who's important works at Google, Microsoft, Facebook, etc. and most startups are going to be grifters that can barely call an API.

Maybe retail will be stupid enough to let the grifters dump overhyped SPACs on them or something, but interest rates are too high for that.

Intel self driving company MobileEye IPO's last fall.

predicted YES

@BTE self driving is not ai. Not everything computers do is ai, ai is a specific academic field that barely exists outside nerds. Tesla had ONE ai research executive and he left the company.

predicted YES

@BTE ai means operating at a human level. An l5 autonomous might be ai. There is no serious effort to achieve that even if ai as a buzzword is used occasionally.

Databricks will be the first. Though you will probably say they aren't an AI company.

predicted YES

@BTE it isn't but it also won't ipo and sells a free product with no real revenue.

Brainchip? Veritone?

predicted YES

@Dreamingpast biotechnology and media licensing are not ai just because they use computers.

@MarkIngraham Brainchip is not a biotech company...

@Dreamingpast The company's primary products are the MetaTF development environment, which allows the training and deployment of spiking neural networks (SNN), and the AKD1000 neuromorphic processor, a hardware implementation of their spiking neural network system. BrainChip's technology is based on a neuromorphic computing architecture, which attempts to mimic the way the human brain works. The company is a part of Intel Foundry Services and Arm AI partnership.[3][4]

predicted YES

@Dreamingpast it's not public either, it's pink sheets

@MarkIngraham AI.Reverie: AI.Reverie is a simulation platform that trains AI to understand the world. They offer a suite of synthetic data and vision APIs to help businesses across different industries train their machine learning algorithms and improve their AI applications, so that together, they make cities smarter, farms sustainable, homes safer, tasks easier, and life

predicted YES

@Dreamingpast is not public, and is utterly insignificant.

If openai became a billion dollar company capable of being public it would count but it never will.

@MarkIngraham wow very interesting

@Dreamingpast I did a quick search online because I found it utterly ridiculous for there to not be any major startups in AI which are public

I'm slightly surprised, because the only public companies that are doing AI are the typical big-tech but almost all startups i saw and searched for either private or their stock is so freaking low (<5usd). Wow.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

Bullfrog AI is the only exception because it's a not real AI company, it primarily does clinical trials.

predicted YES

@MarkIngraham c3 AI is the only other one and it was a disaster.

@MarkIngraham I was just about to say c3. And yes it has been a disaster. What about Palantir?

predicted YES

@BTE not a real ai company, any random company that uses computers is not ai. Ai at a minimum pretends to pass the Turing test.

@MarkIngraham So you are only talking about the application, not the company. Silly question then, makes no sense.

predicted YES

@BTE I don't consider that silly. Palantir has no notable contributions to the ai field.

@MarkIngraham I am not arguing about Palantir. I am just saying you aren't asking about companies, you are asking about products.

predicted YES

@BTE fine. At a minimum they need to publish papers.

@MarkIngraham There are Chinese surveillance companies that are true AI companies. Does this only include US-based?

predicted YES

@BTE it includes all companies but I dont think they have any evidence of ai research.