Who will place second in the primary for California Senate on March 5, 2024? (Full term, not special election)
resolved Apr 13
Steve Garvey
Adam Schiff
Katie Porter
Barbara Lee
Eric Early

The 2024 United States Senate election in California will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of California. California uses a nonpartisan blanket primary, in which all candidates regardless of party affiliation appear on the same primary ballot and the two highest-placing candidates advance to the general election. Primary elections will take place on March 5, 2024.[1]

This market will resolve to the second place finisher in the primary, regardless of their placement in November.

First/second place market by @MarcusAbramovitch on who will advance can be found here:

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@MarkHamill It's official, Adam Schiff won and Steve Garvey placed second, so this market should resolve YES for Steve Garvey.

Official Statewide Election Results page:

March 5th Primary Results Page:

Complete Statement of Vote - Relevant results are on Page 11

@houstonEuler Finally!

bought Ṁ590 Steve Garvey YES

Today's the day!

4K margin... damn. This market would still be competitive if the margin was just 2K closer, or if this were a race that had recounts.

@aenews 3.5K margin

@aenews Now I'm getting nervous...

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Humm too bad this isn't trade-able, end date really should be April 12th since that is final certification. @MarkHamill

@aenews Thanks, updated it. I haven’t been active lately, apologies

opened a Ṁ2,000 Adam Schiff NO at 13% order

@MarkHamill No problem, I appreciate the quick turnaround!

bought Ṁ120 Steve Garvey YES

@aenews Down to 4,700 outstanding. Schiff still up 3,600. Should be resolved soon

@cantankerous 3,700 of those are in San Diego County which certifies at 8 pm EDT tonight. This market should resolve this evening

@cantankerous In the last primary, 10's of K ballots were added between this point and the final certified results. For whatever reason, counties still made changes after individual certifications and before statewide certification. So no, it's not resolveable until April 12th.

bought Ṁ100 Steve Garvey YES

Many counties are now showing COMPLETED, but there are still 22k unprocessed ballots: Unprocessed Ballots Status | 2024 Presidential Primary | California Secretary of State

And Schiff is still leading by nearly 6k: U.S. Senate (Full Term) - Statewide Results | 2024 Presidential Primary | California Secretary of State.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 About 5500 now, Garvey will overtake by 2025

sold Ṁ42 Steve Garvey NO

@aenews Make it 5000 =)

@aenews Down to 15k oustanding.... ugh this is taking forever i wanna get my mana back!!

@cantankerous Hey, stop complaining, I'm never getting my mana back 😢 or the err $20K+... 😓

Well fortunately, we don't have that much longer to wait. Final certification is the 12th, so just another two weeks to go 😉

@aenews I hope you had a lot of money to spare!

Well it's official. There is now really no chance for Garvey to come in first. With only two counties left with a vote total that amounts to around 6,000 votes (rounded up) left to be counted and projections showing Garvey getting 2,000 of those remaining votes, it's nowhere close to the 10,000 he needs.

This has genuinely been the most exciting market I've ever participated in on this site, and I've really enjoyed the wild ride!

bought Ṁ1,500 Adam Schiff NO

I never imagined it would be this close. Kudos to @aenews and @SemioticRivalry for having the foresight to make this market competitive. I never saw this coming down to only a tenth of a percent, but you guys really did.

@Will94fc Yeah final margin will be less than a tenth of a percent. Crazy close, yet victory just out of reach for Garvey.

@Will94fc Well, I wouldn't say zero chance. But it would take a miracle and likely ballot counting issues to make up the difference at this point.

@Will94fc Still 60k left according to the Secretary of State site. >95% ≠ 100%!

@cantankerous The website isn't being updated frequently:

County (CA SoS reported v County website reported): Link to county reporting
Humboldt (12,744 v. 872): https://humboldtgov.org/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=5478
Santa Barbara (1,745 v. 0): https://content.civicplus.com/api/assets/42df074b-7c7c-4936-a966-9d7ccfc38023
Fresno (2,025 v 50): https://www.fresnocountyca.gov/Departments/County-ClerkRegistrar-of-Voters/Elections
Riverside (3,000 v 2,000): https://voteinfo.net/march-5-2024-election

Smaller differences:
San Luis Obispo: Reportedly less than 1k: https://www.ksby.com/news/national-politics/america-votes/latest-ballot-count-reveals-winners-in-county-supervisor-races
Shasta: 803: https://anewscafe.com/2024/03/22/redding/march-22-406-p-m-election-update-no-on-recall-leads-by-48-votes/

Most of the other major counties with unprocessed ballots either had their most recent report match the CA SoS website, or I couldn't find their number, so there are considerably less than 60,000 unprocessed ballots, but maybe not as few as 6,000.

@houstonEuler I would like to resolve as soon as the number of outstanding ballots is less than the 7k margin. Think we hit that by Wednesday ish?

sold Ṁ932 Steve Garvey YES

@MarkHamill Wednesday might still be a little optimistic:
1. The pace of counting seems to have significantly slowed with these most recent ballots, and might slow down even more with the final remaining ballots.
2. Based on the distribution of the final remaining ballots, the margin will likely be considerably lower than 7k, and could potentially deliver a win for Garvey.

@houstonEuler Yeah, I'm aware. the site said ~75k but given those differences i guessed 60k was the true number. More has come in and my guess is now ~40k

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