The 2024 United States Senate election in California will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of California. California uses a nonpartisan blanket primary, in which all candidates regardless of party affiliation appear on the same primary ballot and the two highest-placing candidates advance to the general election. Primary elections will take place on March 5, 2024.[1]
This market will resolve to the second place finisher in the primary, regardless of their placement in November.
First/second place market by @MarcusAbramovitch on who will advance can be found here:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ29,376 | |
| 2 | Ṁ6,298 | |
| 3 | Ṁ4,685 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,926 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,392 |
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@MarkHamill It's official, Adam Schiff won and Steve Garvey placed second, so this market should resolve YES for Steve Garvey.
Official Statewide Election Results page:
https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results
March 5th Primary Results Page:
https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results/pres-prim-march-2024/statement-vote
Complete Statement of Vote - Relevant results are on Page 11
https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2024-primary/sov/complete-sov.pdf
It might have been even closer if not for some late-arriving ballots: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pressenterprise.com/2024/04/08/at-least-104-southern-california-voters-mailed-their-ballots-on-time-they-werent-counted/amp/
4K margin... damn. This market would still be competitive if the margin was just 2K closer, or if this were a race that had recounts.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Humm too bad this isn't trade-able, end date really should be April 12th since that is final certification. @MarkHamill
@MarkHamill No problem, I appreciate the quick turnaround!
@cantankerous 3,700 of those are in San Diego County which certifies at 8 pm EDT tonight. This market should resolve this evening
@cantankerous In the last primary, 10's of K ballots were added between this point and the final certified results. For whatever reason, counties still made changes after individual certifications and before statewide certification. So no, it's not resolveable until April 12th.
@MarkHamill Can be resolved: https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2024-primary/sov/complete-sov.pdf
Final Margin: +3478 Schiff
Many counties are now showing COMPLETED, but there are still 22k unprocessed ballots: Unprocessed Ballots Status | 2024 Presidential Primary | California Secretary of State
And Schiff is still leading by nearly 6k: U.S. Senate (Full Term) - Statewide Results | 2024 Presidential Primary | California Secretary of State.
@cantankerous Hey, stop complaining, I'm never getting my mana back 😢 or the err $20K+... 😓
Well fortunately, we don't have that much longer to wait. Final certification is the 12th, so just another two weeks to go 😉
Well it's official. There is now really no chance for Garvey to come in first. With only two counties left with a vote total that amounts to around 6,000 votes (rounded up) left to be counted and projections showing Garvey getting 2,000 of those remaining votes, it's nowhere close to the 10,000 he needs.
This has genuinely been the most exciting market I've ever participated in on this site, and I've really enjoyed the wild ride!
I never imagined it would be this close. Kudos to @aenews and @SemioticRivalry for having the foresight to make this market competitive. I never saw this coming down to only a tenth of a percent, but you guys really did.
@cantankerous The website isn't being updated frequently:
County (CA SoS reported v County website reported): Link to county reporting
Humboldt (12,744 v. 872): https://humboldtgov.org/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=5478
Santa Barbara (1,745 v. 0): https://content.civicplus.com/api/assets/42df074b-7c7c-4936-a966-9d7ccfc38023
Fresno (2,025 v 50): https://www.fresnocountyca.gov/Departments/County-ClerkRegistrar-of-Voters/Elections
Riverside (3,000 v 2,000): https://voteinfo.net/march-5-2024-election
Smaller differences:
San Luis Obispo: Reportedly less than 1k: https://www.ksby.com/news/national-politics/america-votes/latest-ballot-count-reveals-winners-in-county-supervisor-races
Shasta: 803: https://anewscafe.com/2024/03/22/redding/march-22-406-p-m-election-update-no-on-recall-leads-by-48-votes/
Most of the other major counties with unprocessed ballots either had their most recent report match the CA SoS website, or I couldn't find their number, so there are considerably less than 60,000 unprocessed ballots, but maybe not as few as 6,000.
@houstonEuler I would like to resolve as soon as the number of outstanding ballots is less than the 7k margin. Think we hit that by Wednesday ish?
@MarkHamill Wednesday might still be a little optimistic:
1. The pace of counting seems to have significantly slowed with these most recent ballots, and might slow down even more with the final remaining ballots.
2. Based on the distribution of the final remaining ballots, the margin will likely be considerably lower than 7k, and could potentially deliver a win for Garvey.
@houstonEuler Yeah, I'm aware. the site said ~75k but given those differences i guessed 60k was the true number. More has come in and my guess is now ~40k
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Why use play money?People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?